Fairfax Ipsos poll May 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,011

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 10 May to 12 May 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

• National 47.6% (-1.8%)
• Labour 29.5% (-2.3%)
• Green 12.7% (+2.7%)
• NZ First 3.7% (+0.1%)
• Maori 1.9% (+0.8%)
• United Future 0.1% (nc)
• ACT 0.9% (+0.4%)
• Mana 0.5% (+0.2%)
• Conservative 1.6% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 62
• Labour 38
• Green 16
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 16 + Mana 1 = 55/122 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/122

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

• John Key 48.6% (-1.0%)
• David Cunliffe 13.4% (-3.9%)
• Winston Peters 3.4% (+0.6%)

Country Direction

• Right 63.6% (-0.1%)
• Wrong 35.7% (+0.1%)

Time for a Change of Government

• Yes 46.3% (-1.0%)
• No 48.1% (+0.1%)

Keep interest rates low

• National 40%
• Labour 26%

Spending

• Should increase spending in Budget 21%
• Decrease spending 21%
• Maintain current levels 51%

Most important issues

• Freeze on energy and fuel prices 74% personally/69% for country
• Tax cuts for workers 70%/69%
• Increase minimum wage 55%/72%
• Help first time buyers 54%/76%
• Reduce childcare costs 44% personally/66% for country
• Increase paid parental leave 32%/45%
• Introduce capital gains tax 28%/44%
• Increase pension age 26%/46%

Government performance

• Keeping unemployment down – 52%
• Balancing tax and expenditure – 57%
• Managing economy 69%
• Improve standard of living 41%
• Improve standard of living for poor people 31%
• Improve standard of living for rich people 75%