Archives: Country Direction

Roy Morgan poll November 2017

December 5, 2017

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 887 of whom 869 have a party preference

Undecideds: 2.0%

Dates: 30 October to 12 November 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 40.5% (-5.5%)
  • Labour 39.5% (+8.5%)
  • Green 10.0% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • TOP 2.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 51
  • Labour 49
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 120

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 51 + ACT 1 = 52/120 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 49 + Greens 13 = 62/120 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 6 = 8/120

On this poll Labour could govern with the Greens.

Country Direction

  • Right 66.5% (+8.0%)
  • Wrong 20.0% (-7.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (-1.0%)
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Roy Morgan poll October 2017

October 28, 2017

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 894 of whom 863 have a party preference

Undecideds: 2.5%

Dates: 02 October to 15 October 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (+6.0%)
  • Labour 31.0% (-8.5%)
  • Green 11.0% (+2.0%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • TOP 2.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 39
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats except Ohariu.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 = 59/120 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 14 = 53/120 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 = 8/120

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.5% (-3.5%)
  • Wrong 27.0% (+2.0)
  • Can’t Say 14.5% (+1.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll September 2017

September 17, 2017

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 866 of whom 825 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 28 August to 10 September 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 40.0% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 39.5% (+7.0%)
  • Green 9.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 6.0% (-5.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • TOP 2.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 50
  • Labour 49
  • Green 11
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats except Ohariu.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 51 + ACT 1 = 51/120 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 49 + Greens 11 = 60/120 – 1 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 2 = 9/120

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 62.0% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 25.0% (+1.5)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (-1.0%)
 +
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Roy Morgan poll August 2017

August 25, 2017

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 873 of whom 816 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: 31 July to 13 August 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 42.5% (-0.5%)
  • Labour 32.5% (+2.0%)
  • Green 9.0% (-4.5%)
  • NZ First 11.5% (+3.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 52
  • Labour 40
  • Green 11
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • NZ First 14
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats except Ohariu.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 52 + ACT 1 = 53/120 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 11 = 51/120 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 14 + Maori 2 = 16/120

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 62.5% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 23.5% (nc)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (+0.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll July 2017

July 30, 2017

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 868 of whom 794 have a party preference

Undecideds: 8.5%

Dates: 26 June to 9 July 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 43.0% (-3.5%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+5.0%)
  • Green 13.5% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 8.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 0.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 53
  • Labour 37
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 53 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 17 = 54/121 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 12/121

On this poll the NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.0 (+1.5%)
  • Wrong 23.5% (-3.5)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (+2.0%)
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Roy Morgan poll June 2017

June 24, 2017

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 871 of whom 817 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: 29 May to 11 June 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 46.5% (+3.5%)
  • Labour 25.5% (-3.0%)
  • Green 14.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 9.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 32
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 11
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 17 = 49/121 – 11 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 11 + Maori 2 = 13/121

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 61.5 (+1.0%)
  • Wrong 27.0% (nc)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-1.0%)
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Roy Morgan poll May 2017

June 6, 2017

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 856 of whom 809 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 01 May to 14 May 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 43.0% (nc)
  • Labour 28.5% (-1.0%)
  • Green 14.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 10.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-1.0%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • Conservative 0.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 53
  • Labour 35
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 12
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 53 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 17 = 52/121 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 12 + Maori 2 = 14/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 60.5 (+2.5%)
  • Wrong 27.0% (-2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (-0.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll April 2017

April 29, 2017

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 862 of whom 802 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.0%

Dates: 01 April to 16 April 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 43.0% (-0.5%)
  • Labour 29.5% (nc)
  • Green 13.0% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 10.5% (+3.0%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-1.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (+1.0%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 52
  • Labour 36
  • Green 16
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 13
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 52 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 16 = 52/121 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 13 + Maori 1 = 14/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.0 (-3.5%)
  • Wrong 29.0% (+3.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (nc)
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Roy Morgan poll March 2017

March 26, 2017

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 847 of whom 783 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.5%

Dates: 27 February to 12 March 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 43.5% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 29.5% (+3.5%)
  • Green 14.5% (+1.5%)
  • NZ First 7.5% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 53
  • Labour 36
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 53 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 55/120 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 18 = 54/120 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 2 = 11/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 61.5% (-2.0%)
  • Wrong 25.5% (+2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (nc)
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Roy Morgan poll February 2017

February 28, 2017

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 852 of whom 805 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 30 January to 12 February 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 13.0% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 8.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 32
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 16 = 48/121 – thirteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 12/121

On this poll National would govern with ACT and United Future.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.5% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 23.5% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (-1.0%)

Most Important Issues

  • Housing 26% (-1%)
  • Poverty 17% (+1%)
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Earlier posts »

Curia's blog specialises in polls and polling, with a mainly New Zealand focus. More

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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 36.2% 46
Labour 27.6% 35
Act 9.5% 12
Green 12.6% 16
NZ First 6.4% 8
Maori 2.5% 3
Total 94.7% 120
11/10/23
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