Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  18 to 28 January 2018

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-1.3%)
  • Labour 42.3% (+5.0%)
  • Green 6.0% (-1.1%)
  • NZ First 3.8% (-3.3%)
  • Maori 0.8% (+0.4%)
  • ACT 0.2% (-0.4%)
  • Opportunities 1.4% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 55
  • Green 8
  • ACT 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 55 + Greens 8 = 63/121 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0  = 0/121

On this poll there would be a Labour/Green Government

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 26.0% (-8.7%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 38.0% (+8.3%)

Leader Ratings

  • Bill English – 53.3% well and 24.2% poor = +28.9%
  • Jacinda Ardern – 70.9% well and 9.3% poor = +61.6%

PM’s pregnancy

  • positively affect her performance 34%
  • negatively 20%
  • No impact 39%

Roy Morgan poll October 2017

October 28, 2017

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 894 of whom 863 have a party preference

Undecideds: 2.5%

Dates: 02 October to 15 October 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (+6.0%)
  • Labour 31.0% (-8.5%)
  • Green 11.0% (+2.0%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • TOP 2.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 39
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats except Ohariu.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 = 59/120 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 14 = 53/120 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 = 8/120

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.5% (-3.5%)
  • Wrong 27.0% (+2.0)
  • Can’t Say 14.5% (+1.5%)

Te Tai Tokerau poll

September 22, 2017

Reid Research for Maori TV found:

Party Vote

  • Labour 50%
  • Maori Party 10%
  • NZ First 15%
  • National 8%
  • Greens 10%
  • Mana 6%

Electorate Vote

  • Kelvin Davis (L) 67%
  • Hine Harawira (Mana) 30%

Tamaki Makaurau poll

September 18, 2017

Newshub reports on a Reid Research poll:

Party Vote

  • Labour 47.0% (+6.2%)
  • Maori Party 14.5% (+1.7%)
  • NZ First 12.1% (-2.0%)
  • Greens 11.3% (-0.5%)
  • National 12.6% (+5.0%)

Electorate Vote

  • Peeni Henare (L) 46.0% (+7.7%)
  • Shane Taurima (M) 32.6% (+1.7%)
  • Marama Davidson (G) 21.4% (+5.5%)

The changes are from the election result.

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  6 to 11 September 2017

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 47.3% (+4.0%)
  • Labour 37.8% (-1.6%)
  • Green 4.9% (-1.2%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (-0.6%)
  • Maori 1.1% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.1%)
  • Opportunities 1.6% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 49
  • Green 0
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 = 62/121 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 49 + Greens 0 = 49/121 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 2 = 10/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 33.1% (+3.0%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 31.7% (+1.8%)
  • Winston Peters 6.9% (nc)

Waiariki poll

September 11, 2017

Reid Research for Maori TV found:

Party Vote

  • Labour 50%
  • Maori Party 27%
  • NZ First 10%
  • National 6%
  • Greens 5%

Electorate Vote

  • Tamati Coffey (L) 40%
  • Te Ururoa Flavell (M) 60%

Hauraki-Waikato poll

September 11, 2017

Reid Research for Maori TV found:

Party Vote

  • Labour 53%
  • NZ First 15%
  • Maori Party 15%

Electorate Vote

  • Nanaia Mahuta (L) 78%
  • Rahui Papa (M) 22%

Whangarei poll

September 3, 2017

Colmar Brunton did a poll for Q+A in Whangarei. They found:

Party Vote

  • National 41%
  • Labour 37%
  • NZ First 16%
  • Greens 3.6%
  • Maori Party 1.3%

Electorate Vote

  • Shane Reti (N) 42%
  • Shane Jones (NZF) 24%
  • Tony Savage (L) 22%
  • Ash Holwell (G) 10%

Te Tai Tonga poll

August 30, 2017

Newshub reports on a Reid Research poll:

Party Vote

  • Labour 47.6% (+10.7%)
  • Maori Party 11.7% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 14.4% (+1.5%)
  • Greens 9.3% (+7.2%)
  • National 14.1% (-0.3%)

Electorate Vote

  • Rino Tirikatene (L) 57.1% (+14.2%)
  • Mei Reedy-Taare (M) 22.1% (-2.8%)
  • Metiria Turei (G) 20.7% (-4.1%)

The changes are from the election result.

Te Tai Hauauru poll

August 30, 2017

Newshub reports on a Reid Research poll:

Party Vote

  • Labour 41.8% (-0.4%)
  • Maori Party 24.0% (+6.4%)
  • NZ First 11.0% (-0.8%)
  • Greens 8.1% (-3.8%)
  • National 11.2% (+4.1%)

Electorate Vote

  • Adrian Rurawhe (L) 39.0% (-2.3%)
  • Howie Tamati (M) 52.0% (+18.6%)

The changes are from the election result.

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