3 News Reid Research poll July 2012

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 28 July to 1 August 2012

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 50.6% (+4.8%)
• Labour 30.8% (-2.4%)
• Green 11.2% (-3.2%)
• ACT 0.1% (-0.4%)
• Maori 1.6%  (+0.2%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• Mana 0.2% (-0.1%)
• NZ First 3.0% (+0.2%)
• Conservative 1.7% (+0.6%)

Projected Seats

• National 65
• Labour 39
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/124 – four more than minimum 62 needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 54/122 – nine fewer than minimum 62 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• Key 43.2% (+2.7%)
• Shearer 8.9% (-3.4%)
• Peters 6.2% (+1.4%)
• Norman 2.0% (-2.0%)