3 News Reid Research Poll October 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 20 October to 27 October 2011

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 52.3% (-5.1%)
• Labour 30.2% (+3.6%)
• Green 9.4% (-0.4%)
• ACT 1.5% (+0.5%)
• Maori 1.4%  (+0.6%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• Mana 0.9% (+0.2%)
• NZ First 2.4% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 65
• Labour 38
• Green 12
• ACT 2
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, Mana, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 65 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 68/124 – 6 more than minimum 62 needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 51/124 -11 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• Key 52.7% (-1.8%)
• Goff 9.8% (+3.6%)

Leadership Approval

• Key – 71.1% (-5.1%) doing well vs 17.9% (+6.4%) doing poorly – net positive is 53.2% (-11.5%)
• Goff  – 28.4% (+1.6%) doing well vs 54.2% (+5.1%) doing poorly – net positive is -25.8% (-3.5%)

Govt handling of Rena

• 36% didn’t do well
• 30% okay
• 34% done well

Importance of Issues

• Environment 8.2/10
• food prices and the quality of our schools at 7.9.
• Hospital care was third at 7.8.
• The price of petrol was fourth at 7.7.
• The number of people living in poverty was fifth 7.5.