Roy Morgan Poll late July 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 834 (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 20 July to 2 August 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 53.5% (+1.5%)
• Labour 34.0% (+4.0%)
• Green 7.0% (-3.0%)
• ACT 2.5% (+1.5%)
• Maori 1.5% (-2.0%)
• United Future 0.5% (nc)
• Progressive 0.0% (nc)
• NZ First 1.0% (-1.0%)

Projected Seats

• National 65
• Labour 41
• Green 8
• ACT 3
• Maori 5
• United Future 1
• Progressive 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 65 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 69/124 – 6 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 50/124 -13 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 66.0% (-0.5%)
• Wrong 18.5% (-2.0%)
• Can’t Say 15.5% (+2.5%)