Roy Morgan Poll early May 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 896 (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 20 April to 03 May 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 55.0% (+5.0%)
• Labour 30.5% (-2.0%)
• Green 7.0% (-1.5%)
• ACT 2.0% (-0.5%)
• Maori 2.0% (-1.5%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
• Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
• NZ First 2.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 68
• Labour 38
• Green 9
• ACT 3
• Maori 5
• United Future 1
• Progressive 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 68 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 72/124 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 47/124 -16 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 66.5% (-2.0%)
• Wrong 20.0% (+3.0%)
• Can’t Say 13.5% (-1.0%