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Least Preferred PM

November 1, 2011

The Herald on Sunday reports:

Phil Goff might be the Labour Party’s chosen one – but it doesn’t look like anyone else wants him. After hundreds of polls asking who voters prefer as prime minister, the Herald on Sunday this week asked who they least wanted.

According to the Key Research poll of 1182 voters, the clear “winner” was Goff at 25.6 per cent. …

The Act leader polled second on 14.5 per cent and Mana Party leader Harawira was third on 13.2 per cent.

John Key, who polled fourth “worst” on 7.8 per cent, also refused to comment.

 

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HoS Key Research MMP Poll

November 1, 2011

According to a 1200-voter Key Research phone poll commissioned by the Herald on Sunday, regular voters are firmly behind MMP – three voters want to keep it for every two who want it dumped.

The Herald on Sunday poll finds 45 per cent of voters want to keep MMP and 28 per cent want it dropped. Only 1.2 per cent support SM, making it the least popular of the five systems that voters can choose from.

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Manawatu MMP poll

November 1, 2011

A Manawatu Standard/Versus Research poll of 400 voters showed 53 per cent of voters wanted to keep MMP, 25 per cent preferred First Past the Post, while 21 per cent did not know.

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3 News Reid Research Poll October 2011

November 1, 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 20 October to 27 October 2011

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 52.3% (-5.1%)
  • Labour 30.2% (+3.6%)
  • Green 9.4% (-0.4%)
  • ACT 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.4%  (+0.6%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.9% (+0.2%)
  • NZ First 2.4% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 38
  • Green 12
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, Mana, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 68/124 – 6 more than minimum 62 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 51/124 -11 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 52.7% (-1.8%)
  • Goff 9.8% (+3.6%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 71.1% (-5.1%) doing well vs 17.9% (+6.4%) doing poorly – net positive is 53.2% (-11.5%)
  • Goff  – 28.4% (+1.6%) doing well vs 54.2% (+5.1%) doing poorly – net positive is -25.8% (-3.5%)

Govt handling of Rena

  • 36% didn’t do well
  • 30% okay
  • 34% done well

Importance of Issues

  • Environment 8.2/10
  • food prices and the quality of our schools at 7.9.
  • Hospital care was third at 7.8.
  • The price of petrol was fourth at 7.7.
  • The number of people living in poverty was fifth 7.5.

 

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Roy Morgan late October 2011

November 1, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 933, of whom 872 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: 10 October to 23 October 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.5% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 29.5% (+1.5%)
  • Green 9.5% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 37
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/121 – 7 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 50/122 – 11 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 61.0% (-1.0%)
  • Wrong 24.5% (nc)
  • Can’t Say 14.5% (+1.0%)
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Te Tai Tokerau poll October 2011

October 31, 2011

Digipoll did a poll of 400 respondents in the Te Tai Tokerau electorate.

Party Vote

  • Labour 27%
  • Maori 27%
  • Mana 25%
  • National 14%
  • Greens 4%
  • NZ Furst 3%

Electorate Vote

  • Hone Harawira (Mana) 42%
  • Kelvin Davis (Labour) 35%
  • Waihoroi Shortland (Maori) 20%

Preferred PM

  • John Key 26%
  • Hone Harawira 11%
  • Shane Jones 7%
  • Pita Sharples 7%
  • Phil Goff 6%
  • Tariana Turia 3%
  • Kelvin Davis 2%

Government Direction

  • Right 29%
  • Wrong 58%

Most favoured Maori MP

  • Hone Harawira 30%
  • Pita Sharples 22%
  • Kelvin Davis 11%
  • Tariana Turia 7%
  • Shane Jones 6%

Most Important Issue

  • Education 18%
  • Employment 15%
  • Whanau 10%
  • Treaty Claims 9%

Well being

  • Better Off 20%
  • Worse Off 50%
  • No difference 30%
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NZ Herald Digipoll October 2011

October 29, 2011

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 10.6%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 671 had a party vote preference

Dates: 20 to 27 October 2011

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 53.5% (+1.5%)
  • Labour 30.3% (-1.2%)
  • Green 9.5% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 2.8% (+0.4%)
  • Maori 1.2% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.1% (nc)
  • ACT 1.5% (+0.3%)
  • Mana 0.1% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 38
  • Green 12
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Mana 1
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each with Labour winning Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 70/124 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 51/124 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 70.6% (+0.9%)
  • Goff 13.7% (+2.2%)
  • Peters 3.5% (-1.7%)

Direction

  • Right 59.0% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 32.0% (-0.2%)
  • Unsure 9.0% (+0.7%)

MMP

  • Keep MMP 48%
  • Change 15%
  • Don’t Know 15%

Rugby World Cup

  • 39% say McCaw should be knighted for winning RWC, 61% say no
  • 57% say the RWC was a great event and worth spending $40m on
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NZ view of other countries

October 24, 2011

UMR polled 750 NZers on their views of other countries.

The net positive ratings for each country were:

  1. Australia +66%
  2. Scotland +45%
  3. Wales +37%
  4. England +36%
  5. Japan +33%
  6. Germaany +33%
  7. Ireland +32%
  8. France +24%
  9. China +10%
  10. Brazil +9%
  11. India +6%
  12. USA +1%
  13. South Africa -8%
  14. Russia – 10%
  15. Greece -30%
  16. Pakistan -50%

Australia

  • If Australia not playing NZ, 46% support Australia
  • 33% support other country
  • If RWC Final had been Australia v South Africa 63% support Australia and 25% South Africa
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UMR Epsom poll

October 24, 2011

NBR have published a poll done in Epsom of 400 voters taken on 7 an 8 October.

Electorate Vote

  • Paul Goldsmith, National – 42%
  • John Banks, ACT – 28%
  • David Parker, Labour – 19%
  • David Hay, Greens – 11%

Electorate Vote if John Key indicates he wants ACT to win Epsom

  • Paul Goldsmith, National – 25%
  • John Banks, ACT – 43%
  • David Parker, Labour – 19%
  • David Hay, Greens – 11%

Expect to win Epsom

  • Paul Goldsmith, National – 37%
  • John Banks, ACT – 53%
  • David Parker, Labour – 9%
  • David Hay, Greens – 1%

Party Vote

  • National 65%
  • Labour 19%
  • Greens 10%
  • ACT 4%

Don Brash as ACT Leader

  • Worked out poorly 47%
  • Made no difference 30%
  • Worked out well 14%
  • Unsure 9%

 

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Roy Morgan early October 2011

October 18, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 847, of whom 788 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7%

Dates: 26 September to 09 October 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 55.5% (+4.5%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-2.5%)
  • Green 9.5% (-2.0%)
  • ACT 1.5% (nc)
  • Maori 2.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.0% (+1.0%)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 34
  • Green 12
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/121 – 10 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 47/122 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 62.0% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 24.5% (nc)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (-0.5%)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 29.3% 36
Labour 34.5% 43
Green 9.4% 12
Act 7.1% 9
NZ First 12.7% 16
TPM 2.8% 4
CR 49.1% 61
CL 46.7% 59
17/05/26
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