Blog

Cannabis poll

August 24, 2013

UMR polled 1,000 NZers on cannabis and synthetic cannabis:

  • SHOULD BE LEGAL: 14% for marijuana, 12% for synthetic cannabis
  • DECRIMINALISE: 46% for marijuana, 38% for synthetic cannabis
  • SHOULD BE ILLEGAL: 35% of marijuana, 47% for synthetic cannabis

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 919 of whom 878 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.5%

Dates: 29 July 2013 to 11 August 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (-7.0%)
  • Labour 34.0% (+5.0%)
  • Green 14.0% (+4.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 42
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/121 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 18 + Mana 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/121

On this poll there would be a centre-left government.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.0% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 30.0% (nc)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (+0.5%)

Auckland Mayoral poll

August 20, 2013

Radio Live report:

The latest UMR research poll indicates a strong majority for Len Brown in the upcoming Mayoral election – the current Mayor sitting on a cool 47 percent of the total vote, 66 percent of the decided vote.

New challenger John Palino is in second place, with 14 percent of the total vote and 20 percent of the decided vote. MANA Party secretary John Minto is third, with five and seven percent respectively.

 

Wellington Mayoralty poll

August 20, 2013

NewstalkZB reports:

A Newstalk ZB Media Research poll released today shows at this stage it’s a fight between incumbent mayor Celia Wade-Brown and councillor John Morrison for the Wellington mayoralty.

Wade-Brown has 31.67% of popular support to continue as mayor, while Morrison is close behind with 25.22%.  Jack Yan came in a distant third with 4.15%. 

A significant 28.38% of the electorate remains undecided.

 

GCSB powers poll

August 15, 2013

Research NZ asked 500 New Zealanders:

In the past the Government Communication Security Bureau, the GCSB, has not been permitted to monitor New Zealand residents. A law comes into force shortly that will allow the GCSB to monitor New Zealand residents as well as non-residents.

Are you in favour or not in favour of the GCSB being allowed to do this?

The results were:

  • 36% in favour
  • 52% not in favour

Trust in MPs

August 15, 2013

ResearchNZ asked 1,000 NZers to rate on a 0 to 10 scale if they trusted certain professions. The percentages who gave an eight or higher was:

  • Ambulance Service 93%
  • Fire Service 91%
  • Doctors and nurses 81%
  • Police 70%
  • Teachers 61%
  • Lawyers 29%
  • People who work for Govt 22%
  • Local Councillors 14%
  • Journalists 11%
  • MPs 9%

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,006 respondents of whom 862 had a voting preference

UndecidedsDates: estimate 27 July to 31 July 2013

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (nc)
  • Green 14.0% (+5.0%)
  • ACT 0.7% (+0.4%)
  • Maori 1.6% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.2%(-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.2% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.3% (-0.3%)
  • Conservative 0.6% (-1.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 42
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/123 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 17 + Mana 1= 60/123 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/122

The Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 41% (-1.0%)
  • David Shearer 13% (+1.0%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (nc)

Next National Leader

  • Bill English 23%
  • Steven Joyce 16%
  • Judith Collins 11%
  • Someone else 5%
  • Don’t know 45%

Economic Outlook

  • Better 52% (-3%)
  • Worse 28% (+2%)
  • Same 20% (+1%)

Meridian share float

  • 14% likely to buy shares
  • 86% unlikely

GST on international purchases

  • 36% support GST on online purchases of under $400
  • 59% oppose

Foreign property buyers

  • 62% support foreigners being unable to buy
  • 32% opposed

 

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 824 of whom 791 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 15 July 2013 to 28 July 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (+4.0%)
  • Labour 29.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 10.0% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 4.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 37
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/122 – six more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 13 + Mana 1 = 51/122 – eleven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll there would be a centre-right government.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.5% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 30.0% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-1.0%)

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error) of whom 831 have a voting preference

Undecideds: 14.2%

Dates: 09 to 17 July 2013

Client: 3 News

Report3NewsPoll July 2013

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (+2.4%)
  • Labour 31.0% (-2.1%)
  • Green 12.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.2% (nc)
  • Maori 1.6%  (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.2% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 0.2% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 3.9% (+1.7%)
  • Conservative 1.1% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 40
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/124 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 56/124 – seven fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 42.0% (+1.3%)
  • Shearer 12.1% (+1.6%)
  • Peters 7.0% (+0.9%)
  • Norman 1.7% (-1.9%)

Leadership Performance Ratings

  • John Key – 52.0% (-3.0%) well and 32.2% (+1.9%) poor = +19% net well (-4.9%)
  • David Shearer – 26.1% (-10.1%) well and 43.3% (+7.0%) poor = -17.2% net well (-17.1%)

Kim Dotcom

  • 52% believe Kim Dotcom’s claims John Key knew of him before the raids
  • 34% believe Key’s denials

David Shearer

  • 42% say Shearer should step down as Labour leader
  • 45% say Shearer should remain
  • 39% of Labour voters say Shearer should step down, 51% say stay

Alternate Labour Leaders

  • David Cunliffe 26%
  • Grant Robertson 16%
  • Andrew Little 9%

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 956 of whom 918 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 01 July 2013 to 14 July 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (+0.5%)
  • Labour 31.0% (-0.5%)
  • Green 11.5% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 1.5% (+1.0%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 39
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/121 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 15 + Mana 2 = 56/121 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll there would be a centre-right government.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.0% (+1.0%)
  • Wrong 29.5% (-2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (+1.5%)
Get our paywalled newsletter on polling insights Subscribe

Get Curia's blog posts
via email