Fairfax Ipsos poll Feb 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,018 of whom 845 have a party preference

Undecideds: 17%

Dates: 10 February to 12 February 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

• National 49.4% (-0.8%)
• Labour 31.8% (-1.8%)
• Green 10.0% (-0.7%)
• NZ First 3.6% (+1.3%)
• Maori 1.1% (+0.4%)
• United Future 0.1% (nc)
• ACT 0.5% (+0.4%)
• Mana0.3% (-0.4%)
• Conservative 2.1% (+1.4%)

Projected Seats

• National 64
• Labour 41
• Green 13
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/124 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 41 + Greens 13 + Mana 1 = 55/124 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/124

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Country Direction

• Right 63.7% (+4.2%)
• Wrong 35.6% (-4.9%)

Government Rating

• 5.8/10 (+0.2)

Time for a change

• Yes 47.3% (-2.8%)
• No 48.0% (+4.9%)

Baby Bonus

• Support 48.5%
• Oppose 48.1%

Raise Taxes

• Support 25.2%
• Oppose 69.4%