Roy Morgan poll June 2016

June 20, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 868 of whom 820 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: early June to 12 June 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 43.0% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-1.5%)
  • Green 14.5% (+2.5%)
  • NZ First 9.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 53
  • Labour 35
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 11
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 53 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 18 = 53/121 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 11 + Maori 2 = 13/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 54.5% (-4.5%)
  • Wrong 34.0% (+5.0%)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-0.5%)

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