Archives: Preferred PM

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 voters

Undecideds:

Dates: 18 March to 22 March 2017

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 46.0% (nc)
• Labour 30.0% (nc)
• Green 11.0% (nc)
• NZ First 8.0% (-3.0%)
• Maori 4.0% (+3.3%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.3%)
• ACT 0.4% (-0.4%)
• Mana 0.2% (-0.6%)
• Conservative 0.3% (+0.1%)
• Opportunities 0.4% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

• National 56
• Labour 36
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 5
• United Future 1
• NZ First 9
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/122 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 36 + Greens 14 = 50/122 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 9 + Maori 5 = 14/122

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• Bill English 26.0% (-5%)
• Andrew Little 7% (nc)
• Winston Peters 9% (+1%)
• Jacinda Ardern 9% (+5%)

Economic Outlook

• Better 46% (-2%)
• Same 28% (-2%)
• Worse 26% (+4%)

Superannuation

• Support increase in eligibility age to 67 – 52%
• Opposed 40%

Freedom Camping

• 69% think more needs to be done to control behaviour of freedom campers
• 23% disagree

Vaccinations

• 48% support banning unvaccinated children from early childhood centres
• 43% disagree

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  10 to 19 March 2017

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

• National 47.1% (+2.0%)
• Labour 30.8% (-1.9%)
• Green 11.2% (-0.3%)
• NZ First 7.6% (-0.5%)
• Maori 0.7% (-0.6%)
• United Future 0.4% (+0.3%)
• ACT 0.4% (+0.2%)
• Mana 0.0% (-0.4%)
• Conservative 0.4% (-0.1%)
• Opportunities 0.8%

Projected Seats

• National 58
• Labour 38
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 9
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 = 52/122 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• Bill English 25.0% (-11.7% from Key)
• Andrew Little 8.3% (-2.2%)
• Winston Peters 8.9% (-2.0%)
• Jacinda Ardern 10.5%

Labour Leader

• Andrew Little 46%
• Jacinda Ardern 38%

Housing

• Is Government doing enough to control housing market – yes 19%
• No 19%

Immigration

• 51% support a cut in immigration
• 39% do not

Superannuation

• 52% support increase in entitlement age to 67
• 42% do not

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,003 voters of whom 808 have a voting preference

Undecideds: 15%

Dates: 11 February to 15 February 2017

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 46.0% (-4%)
• Labour 30.0% (+2%)
• Green 11.0% (-2.0%)
• NZ First 11.0% (+1.0%)
• Maori 0.7% (-0.3%)
• United Future 0.3% (+0.3%)
• ACT 0.8% (+0.8%)
• Mana 0.8% (+0.8)
• Conservative 0.2% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 56
• Labour 36
• Green 13
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 13
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 36 + Greens 13 = 49/121 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 13 + Maori 1 = 14/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• Bill English 31.0% (-5% from Key)
• Andrew Little 7% (-1%)
• Winston Peters 8% (nc)
• Jacinda Ardern 4% (+3%)

Economic Outlook

• Better 48% (+5%)
• Worse 22% (-11%)
• Same 30% (+6%)

Influential Issues

• Housing 27%
• Education 20%
• Economy 16%
• Health 15%
• Environment 9%
• Immigration 9%
• Child Poverty 5%
• Jobs 5%
• Crime 4%

Most Important Issue

• Housing 16%
• Economy 11%
• Health 8%
• Education 7%
• Immigration 6%
• Environment 5%

Summer Holidays shift to February

• Support 32%
• Oppose 52%

Waitangi Day

• Govt continue to attend at Waitangi 61%
• Stop attending 31%

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,010 voters of whom 839 have a party preference

Undecideds: 16%

Dates: 12 November to 23 November 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 50.0% (+2%)
• Labour 28.0% (+2%)
• Green 11.0% (-2.0%)
• NZ First 10.0% (-1.0%)
• Maori 1.0% (-0.8%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.0% (-0.5%)
• Mana 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 0.2% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

• National 60
• Labour 34
• Green 13
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 12
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/122 – the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 34 + Greens 13 = 47/122 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 12 + Maori 1 = 13/122

On this poll National could govern with ACT and United Future.

Preferred PM

• John Key 36.0% (-2%)
• Andrew Little 8% (-2%)
• Winston Peters 8% (-3%)
• Jacinda Ardern 1.0% (nc)

Economic Outlook

• Better 43% (-2%)
• Same 24% (nc)
• Worse 33% (+2%)

Foreign property tax

• Support a 15% tax on foreign house buyers in Auckland 75%
• Oppose 18%

Plastic bag levy

• Support a 15c per bag levy 78%
• Oppose 19%

Surplus 2016

• Increase spending 48%
• Reduce debt 31%
• Reduce taxes 17%

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,013 voters of whom 845 have a party preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates: 03 September to 09 September 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 48.0% (nc)
• Labour 26.0% (-3%)
• Green 13.0% (+1.0%)
• NZ First 11.0% (+2.0%)
• Maori 1.8% (+1.1%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.5% (+0.2%)
• Mana 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 0.3% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

• National 58
• Labour 31
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 13
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 31 + Greens 15 = 46/121 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 13 + Maori 2 = 15/122

On this poll National (plus ACT and United) could govern with the Maori Party.  Labour could govern with Greens, NZ First and Maori Party. The Maori Party would hold the effective balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 38.0% (-1%)
• Andrew Little 10% (+3%)
• Winston Peters 11% (-1%)
• Jacinda Ardern 1.0% (nc)

Economy

• Better 45% (+3%)
• Worse 31% (-5%)

Immigration

• Fewer migrants 38% (+11% from April)
• Current numbers rights 44% (-7%)
• More migrants 13% (-5%)

Housing

• 53% say Government should take more action even if it reduces house values
• 31% say more should be done but only if house values do not shrink
• 11% say no more action needed

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,509 voters of whom 1,245 have a party preference

Undecideds: 15%

Dates: 28 May to 2 June 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 48.0% (-2%)
• Labour 29.0% (+1%)
• Green 12.0% (+2.0%)
• NZ First 9.0% (nc)
• Maori 0.7% (-0.4)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.3% (-0.4%)
• Mana 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 0.7% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

• National 58
• Labour 35
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 11
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 35 + Greens 15 = 50/122 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 11 + Maori 1 = 12/122

On this poll National could govern with NZ First or Labour could govern with Greens, NZ First and Maori Party.

Preferred PM

• John Key 39.0% (nc)
• Andrew Little 7% (nc)
• Winston Peters 12% (+2%)
• Jacinda Ardern 1.0% (-1%)

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: May 2016

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

• National 47.0% (+0.3%)
• Labour 31.3% (-1.0%)
• Green 11.1% (+0.9%)
• NZ First 7.8% (+0.3%)
• Maori 1.0% (-0.3%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.4% (-0.4%)
• Mana 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 0.0% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 38
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 10
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 = 52/122 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 10 + Maori 1 = 11/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 36.7% (-1.6%)
• Andrew Little 8.9% (-1.5%)
• Winston Peters 12.1% (+2.8%)
• Jacinda Ardern 2.6% (-1.6%)

Housing

• 20% think Government is doing enough to control the housing market
• 76% do not
• 61% think foreign buyers are driving up house prices

US Ships

• 75% support a visit by a US Navy ship
• 20% opposed

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,011 voters of whom 841 have a party preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates: 2 to 6 April 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 50.0% (+3%)
• Labour 28.0% (-4%)
• Green 10.0% (+2.0%)
• NZ First 9.0% (-1%)
• Maori 1.1% (nc)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.7% (+0.4%)
• Mana 0.0% (-0.3%)
• Conservative 0.3% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

• National 61
• Labour 34
• Green 11
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 11
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/121 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 34 + Greens 11 = 45/121 – 16 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 11 + Maori 1 = 12/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Preferred PM

• John Key 39.0% (-1)
• Andrew Little 7.0% (-2%)
• Winston Peters 10.0% (+1%)
• Jacinda Ardern 2.0% (nc)

Economic Outlook

• Better 43% (+5%)
• Worse 33% (-6%)
• Same 24% (+1%)

Sugar Tax

• 66% support a tax on soda drinks with sugar
• 29% oppose

Universal Basic Income (UBI)

• Support 32%
• Oppose 49%

Medical Marijuana (cannabis)

• Support 73%
• Oppose 21%

Immigration Levels

• More migrants 18%
• Fewer migrants 27%
• About right level 51%

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,004 of whom 855 had a party preference

Undecideds: 11%

Dates: 13 to 17 February 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 47.0% (nc)
• Labour 32.0% (+1%)
• Green 8.0% (-4.0%)
• NZ First 10.0% (+1%)
• Maori 1.0% (+0.2%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.3% (+0.1%)
• Mana 0.3% (+0.3%)
• Conservative 0.6% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 58
• Labour 39
• Green 10
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 12
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 10 = 49/122 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 12 + Maori 1 = 13/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 40.0% (nc)
• Andrew Little 9.0% (+1%)
• Winston Peters 9.0% (+1%)
• Jacinda Ardern 2.0% (-1%)

NZ Flag

• Current Flag 63%
• Alternative Flag 26%

Police Pursuits

• Police should be able to pursue any vehicle that fails to stop 68%
• NZ law should be changed 26%

TPP

• May impact our sovereignty and I’m concerned 44%
• May impact our sovereignty and not a big concern 22%
• Not much impact of sovereignty 24%

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 04 to 14 December 2015

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

• National 51.3% (+0.5%)
• Labour 31.1% (+0.1%)
• Green 8.2% (-1.0%)
• NZ First 5.7% (-1.2%)
• Maori 2.1% (+1.9%)
• United Future 0.3% (+0.3%)
• ACT 0.8% (+0.6%)
• Mana 0.0% (-0.2%)
• Conservative 0.0% (-0.6%)

Projected Seats

• National 62
• Labour 37
• Green 10
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 7
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/121 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Greens 10 = 47/121 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 7 + Maori 2 = 9/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Preferred PM

• John Key 65.2% (+1.5%)
• Andrew Little 16.2% (+2.9%)
• Winston Peters 7.9% (-3.7%)
• Jacinda Ardern 2.8% (-1.1%)

TPP

• 27% support (+5%)
• 26% oppose (-6%)
• 46% no view (nc)

Iraq

• Support deployment 63% (+4%)
• Oppose deployment 30% (-4%)

Obesity

• 53% say school tuck shops should ban unhealthy food
• 44% disagree

US Ship Visits

• 50% say a US visit would be positive
• 29% don’t want a visit
• 16% say a visit would be a triumph for NZ nuclear free policy