Archives: Uncategorized

Roy Morgan poll April 2017

April 29, 2017

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 862 of whom 802 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.0%

Dates: 01 April to 16 April 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 43.0% (-0.5%)
  • Labour 29.5% (nc)
  • Green 13.0% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 10.5% (+3.0%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-1.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (+1.0%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 52
  • Labour 36
  • Green 16
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 13
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 52 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 16 = 52/121 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 13 + Maori 1 = 14/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.0 (-3.5%)
  • Wrong 29.0% (+3.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (nc)
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Roy Morgan poll December 2016

December 26, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 872 of whom 824 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 28 November to 11 December 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 45.0% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 28.5% (+5.5%)
  • Green 14.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 7.5% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 35
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/120 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 18 = 53/120 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/120

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power

Country Direction

  • Right 58.5% (-6.5%)
  • Wrong 27.5% (+3.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (+3.0%)
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Roy Morgan poll June 2016

June 20, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 868 of whom 820 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: early June to 12 June 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 43.0% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-1.5%)
  • Green 14.5% (+2.5%)
  • NZ First 9.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 53
  • Labour 35
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 11
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 53 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 18 = 53/121 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 11 + Maori 2 = 13/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 54.5% (-4.5%)
  • Wrong 34.0% (+5.0%)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-0.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll May 2016

May 23, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 870 of whom 822 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: early May to 15 May 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 45.5% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 29.5% (+3.5%)
  • Green 12.0% (-2.5%)
  • NZ First 9.5% (-3.0%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 36
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 12
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/121 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 = 51/121 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 12 + Maori 1 = 13/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 59.0% (+1.5%)
  • Wrong 29.0% (-1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (nc)
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Roy Morgan Poll March 2016

March 19, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 861 of whom 792 have a party preference

Undecideds: 8.0%

Dates: early March to 13 March 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 28.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 14.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 9.0% (+3.0%)
  • Maori 1.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 34
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 11
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 17 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 11 + Maori 1 = 12/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 56.5% (-3.0%)
  • Wrong 28.5% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (+2.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll December 2015

December 14, 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 882 of whom 811 have a party preference

Undecideds: 8.0%

Dates: early December to 06 December 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (nc)
  • Labour 28.5% (-1.0%)
  • Green 13.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 33
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/120 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 16 = 50/120 – 11 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 2 = 9/120

On this poll National could govern with ACT and United Future.

Country Direction

  • Right 59.5% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 31.0% (+2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 9.5% (-2.0%)
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Roy Morgan poll October 2015

October 16, 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 882 of whom 820 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.0%

Dates: early October to 11 October 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (+5.5%)
  • Labour 29.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 11.5% (-3.5%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.5% (-1.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 35
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/121 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 14 = 49/121 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 1 = 9/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Country Direction

  • Right 53.0% (-5.0%)
  • Wrong 31.0% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 16.0% (+3.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll September 2015

September 23, 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 876 of whom 806 have a party preference

Undecideds: 8.0%

Dates: early August to 13 September 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-6.0%)
  • Labour 31.0% (+4.0%)
  • Green 15.0% (+4.0%)
  • NZ First 5.5% (-2.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 54
  • Labour 37
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 54 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 56/121 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 18 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 2 = 12/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.0% (+4.0%)
  • Wrong 29.5% (-4.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (+0.5%)
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3 News Reid Research poll September 2015

September 23, 2015

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 08 to 16 September 2015

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 47.3% (+0.3%)
  • Labour 33.0% (+1.9%)
  • Green 10.0% (-1.4%)
  • NZ First 7.9% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 0.5% (-0.1%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • ACT 0.6% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.5% (-0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 40
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 12 = 52/121 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 39.5% (+1.2%)
  • Andrew Little 10.8% (+0.6%)
  • Winston Peters 8.6% (-2.7%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 3.5%

NZ Flag

  • Change flag 25%
  • Keep flag 69%

Private Prisons

  • Govt only should run them 70%
  • 13% okay with Serco running them
  • 13% okay with private providers if not Serco

Labour Deputy Leadership

  • Jacinda Ardern 33%
  • Annette King 25%
  • Kelvin Davis 11%
  • Phil Twyford 3%
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Roy Morgan poll August 2015

August 21, 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 892 of whom 843 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: early August to 16 August 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 50.5% (+7.5%)
  • Labour 27.0% (-5.0%)
  • Green 11.0% (-2.0%)
  • NZ First 8.0% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.0% (-1.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 33
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/121 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 13 = 46/121 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 12/121

On this poll National would be able to govern alone.

Country Direction

  • Right 54.0% (+3.0%)
  • Wrong 34.0% (+1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (-4.0%)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 36.8% 46
Labour 29.3% 37
Act 8.6% 11
Green 11.9% 15
NZ First 5.1% 6
Maori 3.6% 6
CR 50.5% 63
CL 44.9% 58
Total 97.8% 121
10/05/24
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