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North Shore City Colmar Brunton Poll on Auckland

July 26, 2009

Colmar Brunton did a poll for North Shore City Council on Auckland Governance. It was from 2 to 8 July 2009, and polled 801 ratepayers of North Shore, taken from the White Pages, with a minimum 250 per ward.

The results are weighted by ward population. They have asked for ratepayers only, so residents who do not pay rates may have been excluded.

  • 47% favour a super city and 36% are oppossed
  • 11% said their democratic representation would be better off, 48% much the same and 40% worse off
  • 80% agreed with the statement “All of the councillors on the new Auckland Council should be elected by people in their local area (that is ‘by Ward’) rather than elected by people across the whole region (that is ‘At Large’)”. Note in my opinion that question is faulty as it does not give the option of there being a mixture of wards and at large – as recommended by the Royal Commission and the Government.
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UMR on David Bain

July 26, 2009

UMR polled 750 NZers in June on David Bain.

In early June a net 39% thought he was not guilty. By late June this dropped to 16%.

Of the 47% who think Bain is not guilty, 79% support compensation of $1.5 million.

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UMR on Business Leaders

July 26, 2009

UMR polled 750 NZers in June 2009 on favourability ratings of 11 business leaders. Their net favourability ratings were:

  1. Peter Jackson +81%
  2. Stephen Tindall +58%
  3. Mike Pero +48%
  4. Graeme Hart + 32%
  5. Rob Fyfe +22%
  6. Mark Weldon +13%
  7. Craig Norgate +11%
  8. Paul Reynolds +8%
  9. Jonathan Ling +5%
  10. Eric Watson -4%
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UMR poll on Auckland Mayor

July 26, 2009

UMR polled 482 Aucklanders as part of two omnibus surveys of 1,500 NZers in June and July 2009. The maximum margin of error at 95% confidence is 4.5%.

Questions were asked on possible two-way clashes for the Auckland Mayoralty.

John Banks vs Mike Lee has 35% Banks, 18% Lee, 22% unsure and 25% don’t know enough.

John Banks vs Len Brown has 34% Banks, 35% Brown, 14% unsure and 17% don’t know enough.

The demographic breakdowns have high margins of error. But the margins between Banks and Brown are:

  • Men +5% (Banks 5% ahead of Brown)
  • Women -6%
  • South Auckland -23%
  • Central Auckland +1%
  • East Auckland +0%
  • West Auckland +5%
  • North Shore +8%
  • Under 30s +16%
  • 30 – 44 yrs +1%
  • 45 – 59 yrs -15%
  • 60+ yrs -8%
  • Under $30K pers income -1%
  • $30 to $50k +18%
  • Over $50k -7%
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Roy Morgan late June 2009 poll

July 20, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 871 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 22 June to 5 July 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 54.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 31.5% (-1.5%)
  • Green 8.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (-1.5)
  • Maori 3.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 38
  • Green 10
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/121 – 6 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 49/121 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.0% (-6.0%)
  • Wrong 23.0% (+4.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (+1.5%)
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Roy Morgan mid June 2009 poll

July 20, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 868 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 01 June to 14 June 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (nc)
  • Labour 33.0% (+2.0%)
  • Green 7.5% (-1.0%)
  • ACT 2.5% (+0.5)
  • Maori 2.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 1.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 40
  • Green 9
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 67/122 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Progressive 1 + Greens 0 = 50/122 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 69.0% (+3.5%)
  • Wrong 18.5% (-1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (-2.0%
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One News Mt Albert Poll

June 8, 2009

One News had a Colmar Brunton poll in Mt Albert. The poll of 500 people has a margin of error of 4.4%.

Electorate Vote

  • David Shearer, Labour 59% (59% in 2008)
  • Melissa Lee, National 21% (29%)
  • Russel Norman, Greens 15% (6%)
  • John Boscawen, ACT 3% (4%)

Party Vote

  • Labour 48% (43%)
  • National 37% (36%)
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Roy Morgan Poll early June 2009

June 6, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 866 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 18 May to 31 May 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (nc)
  • Labour 31.0% (-0.5%)
  • Green 8.5% (-1.0%)
  • ACT 2.0% (nc)
  • Maori 3.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 1.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 38
  • Green 10
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 67/121 – 6 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 49/121 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 65.5% (-2.0%)
  • Wrong 20.0% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.5% (+1.5%
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Roy Morgan Poll late May 2009

May 26, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 985 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 04 May to 17 May 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 31.5% (+1.0%)
  • Green 9.5% (+2.5%)
  • ACT 2.0% (nc)
  • Maori 2.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 1.0% (-1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 38
  • Green 2
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 66/124 – 4 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 = 51/124 -11 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 67.5% (+1.0%)
  • Wrong 19.5% (-0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (-0.5%
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Global Finance Crisis poll by UMR

May 11, 2009

UMR polled 750 people from 2 to 14 April 2009. Findings include:

  • 1 in 3 believe the crisis will get a lot worse or lead to a depression
  • 41% of Kiwi’s believe economy will pick up within a year
  • 82% blame international events for the slow down and only 11% domestic events
  • 42% expect to spend less in 2009 than 2008

Full results are here.

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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 30.3% 38
Labour 29.2% 37
Green 11.0% 14
Act 8.10% 10
NZ First 9.0% 11
TPM 1.6% 2
Opp 6.8% 8
CR 47.4% 59
CL 48.4% 61
13/08/26
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