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Colmar Brunton on Smacking

August 3, 2009

The One News Colmar Brunton Poll of 1,001 respondents from 25 to 29 July asked several questions on smacking:

  • 70% say they intend to vote in the referendum and 24% do not.
  • 20% say the referendum is a good use of public money and 76% do not.
  • 25% say the current law as it relates to smacking and child discipline is working and 63% say it is not.
  • 13% say they intend to vote yes in the referendum, and 83% vote no
  • 2% say it is ok to smack children under any circumstance, 83% say ok to smack under some circumstances and14% say not okay under any circumstances.
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll July 2009

August 2, 2009

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,001 adults, of whom 850 are decided

Dates: 25 July to 29 July 2009

Client: One News

Report:

Party Support

  • National 56.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 31.0% (nc)
  • Green 7.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 3.1% (+0.9%)
  • United Future not reported yet
  • Progressive not reported yet
  • NZ First 1.6%

Projected Seats

  • National 69
  • Labour 37
  • Green 8
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 69 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 71/122 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 46/122 -16 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Economic Outlook

  • 60% economy over next 12 months will be better (+18.0%)
  • 18% same (-1.0%)
  • 22% worse (-17.0%)
Preferred PM
  • John Key 51% (nc)
  • Phil Goff 7% (+1%)
  • Helen Clark 3% (-6%)
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SAS Troops and Afghanistan poll

August 2, 2009

Research NZ polled 500 New Zealanders from 6 to 9 July:

  • 61% agree with extending by a year the tour of duty of 140 troops working on reconstruction projects
  • 47% support sending SAS soldiers to Afghanistan and 44% are against
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Smacking Referendum Poll

August 1, 2009

Research NZ polled 481 people from 17 to 19 June:

  • Only 18% think the referendum is a good use of taxpayers money as the PM has said the Government is unlikely to change the law
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Superannuation poll

August 1, 2009

Research NZ polled 505 people from 4 to 11 June:

  • 72% aware that Govt has suspended contributions to NZ Super Fund
  • 73% concerned about whether future Governments can provide for retired NZers
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Cell phones in cars poll

August 1, 2009

Research NZ surveyed 505 people from 4 to 11 June:

  • 86% agree it should be illegal to use a cellphone when driving
  • However only 42% say this should apply to hands free phones
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ACT Telelink poll on Three Strikes Bill

August 1, 2009

The ACT Party commission Telelink to do poll of 500 respondents. The report is here.

  • 55% have heard of the Three Strikes policy
  • 35% strongly agree with it and 45% agree with it (note exact details were not given to respondents)
  • 73% want the ACT policy adopted by National as government policy
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NZ Herald Digipoll on Smacking July 2009

July 27, 2009

Digipoll did a survey of 200 parents of 4-year-olds. The results are here.

  • 61% of mothers smack their child occassionally
  • 67% of fathers smack their child occassionally
  • Most common punishment for mothers is sending to room at 71% and smacking is most common punishment for only 2% of mothers
  • Most common punishment for fathers is sending to room at 63% and smacking is most common punishment for only 6% of fathers
  • 95% of mothers reward good behaviour
  • Onlu 9% of mothers breastfeed for over a year – down from 42% in 1997
  • 40% of mothers never spent a night apart from their child for the first two years
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Roy Morgan Poll mid July 2009

July 26, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 871 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 6 July to 19 July 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (-1.5%)
  • Green 10.0% (+2.0%)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Maori 3.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.0% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 37
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/122 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 = 50/122 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 66.5% (+3.5%)
  • Wrong 20.5% (-2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (-1.0%)
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Waitakere City Phoenix Research Poll on Auckland

July 26, 2009

Phoenix Research did a poll for Waitakere City Council on Auckland Governance. 400 Waitakere residents were polled:

  • 34% favour a super city and 48% are oppossed
  • 78% agreed with the statement “All of the councillors on the new Auckland Council should be elected by people in their local area (that is by Ward) rather than elected by people across the whole region (that is At Large)”. As with the NSCC poll I regard this question as misleading as it does not include the clear option of a mixture of at large and wards despite this being what is proposed.
  • 42% support Maori seats and 44% do not
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 30.3% 38
Labour 29.2% 37
Green 11.0% 14
Act 8.10% 10
NZ First 9.0% 11
TPM 1.6% 2
Opp 6.8% 8
CR 47.4% 59
CL 48.4% 61
13/08/26
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