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Roy Morgan poll April 2016

April 26, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 843 of whom 784 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.0%

Dates: early April to 17 April 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 42.5% (-3.5%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 14.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 12.5% (+3.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 51
  • Labour 32
  • Green 18
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 15
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 51 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 54/121 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 18 = 50/121 – 11 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 15 + Maori 2 = 17/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 57.5% (-3.5%)
  • Wrong 30.5% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (+2.0%)
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One News Colmar Brunton poll April 2016

April 10, 2016

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,011 voters of whom 841 have a party preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates: 2 to 6 April 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (+3%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-4%)
  • Green 10.0% (+2.0%)
  • NZ First 9.0% (-1%)
  • Maori 1.1% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.7% (+0.4%)
  • Mana 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • Conservative 0.3% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 34
  • Green 11
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 11
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/121 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 11 = 45/121 – 16 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 11 + Maori 1 = 12/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 39.0% (-1)
  • Andrew Little 7.0% (-2%)
  • Winston Peters 10.0% (+1%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 2.0% (nc)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 43% (+5%)
  • Worse 33% (-6%)
  • Same 24% (+1%)

Sugar Tax

  • 66% support a tax on soda drinks with sugar
  • 29% oppose

Universal Basic Income (UBI)

  • Support 32%
  • Oppose 49%

Medical Marijuana (cannabis)

  • Support 73%
  • Oppose 21%

Immigration Levels

  • More migrants 18%
  • Fewer migrants 27%
  • About right level 51%

 

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Cannabis poll

March 31, 2016

UMR polled 750 people on cannabis issues:

  • 72% support the use of marijuana for medical purposes
  • 13% oppose the use of marijuana for medical purposes
  • 46% support the legalisation of small amounts of marijuana for personal use
  • 46% oppose the legalisation of small amounts of marijuana for personal use
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UMR flag polls Mar 2016

March 22, 2016

UMR did another poll on the flag referendum:

  • 58% keep flag
  • 35% change
  • 7% unsure
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Roy Morgan Poll March 2016

March 19, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 861 of whom 792 have a party preference

Undecideds: 8.0%

Dates: early March to 13 March 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 28.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 14.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 9.0% (+3.0%)
  • Maori 1.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 34
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 11
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 17 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 11 + Maori 1 = 12/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 56.5% (-3.0%)
  • Wrong 28.5% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (+2.5%)
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UMR flag poll

March 7, 2016

Stuff reports:

As voting gets underway there is still overwhelming support for the current flag over a change to the silver fern design.

The latest UMR Research poll undertaken in the last week of February has 59 per cent wanting to keep the flag and 32 per cent in favour of change.

Because this poll was done over the phone, those people who were unsure which way they would vote were included and came out at 9 per cent.

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One News Colmar Brunton poll February 2016

February 22, 2016

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,004 of whom 855 had a party preference

Undecideds: 11%

Dates: 13 to 17 February 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (nc)
  • Labour 32.0% (+1%)
  • Green 8.0% (-4.0%)
  • NZ First 10.0% (+1%)
  • Maori 1.0% (+0.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.3% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 0.6% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 39
  • Green 10
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 12
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 10 = 49/122 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 12 + Maori 1 = 13/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 40.0% (nc)
  • Andrew Little 9.0% (+1%)
  • Winston Peters 9.0% (+1%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 2.0% (-1%)

NZ Flag

  • Current Flag 63%
  • Alternative Flag 26%

Police Pursuits

  • Police should be able to pursue any vehicle that fails to stop 68%
  • NZ law should be changed 26%

TPP

  • May impact our sovereignty and I’m concerned 44%
  • May impact our sovereignty and not a big concern 22%
  • Not much impact of sovereignty 24%
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Roy Morgan poll February 2016

February 19, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 896 of whom 833 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.0%

Dates: early February to 14 January 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 48.5% (+1.5%)
  • Labour 27.0% (-0.5%)
  • Green 14.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-2.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 33
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 11
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/121 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 18 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 1 = 8/121

On this poll National could form a CR Government with either ACT or United Future.

Country Direction

  • Right 56.5% (-3.0%)
  • Wrong 28.5% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (+2.5%)
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Newshub Reid Research Flag poll

February 2, 2016

Newshub reports:

The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is bad news for Prime Minister John Key, with 61 percent of people saying no, they don’t want to change the New Zealand flag. Only 30 percent want a change.

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Roy Morgan poll January 2016

January 22, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 876 of whom 819 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: early January to 17 January 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 27.5% (-1.0%)
  • Green 14.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 3.0% (+1.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 33
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First8
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 17 = 50/121 – 11 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 4 = 12/121

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power as both CR and CL would need them to form a Government. The CL would need NZ First also.

Country Direction

  • Right 59.5% (nc)
  • Wrong 28.0% (-3.0)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (+3.0%)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 30.3% 38
Labour 29.2% 37
Green 11.0% 14
Act 8.10% 10
NZ First 9.0% 11
TPM 1.6% 2
Opp 6.8% 8
CR 47.4% 59
CL 48.4% 61
13/08/26
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