Fairfax Ipsos poll early September 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1000 respondents of whom 819 have a party preference

Undecideds: 13.0%

Dates: 28 August to 03 September 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

• National 54.2% (+3.4%)
• Labour 24.3% (-1.8%)
• Green 12.9% (+1.1%)
• NZ First 3.6% (-0.4%)
• Maori 0.3% (-0.4%)
• United Future 0.1% (nc)
• ACT 0.2% (-0.5%)
• Mana 1.3% (-0.9%)
• Conservative 2.4% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

• National 70
• Labour 31
• Green 17
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 2
• NZ First 0
• Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 70 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 72/125 – nine more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 31 + Greens 17 + Mana 2 = 50/125 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/125

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

• John Key 57.6% (+2.6%)
• David Cunliffe 15.8% (-2.1%)