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Te Tai Tokerau poll

September 22, 2017

Reid Research for Maori TV found:

Party Vote

  • Labour 50%
  • Maori Party 10%
  • NZ First 15%
  • National 8%
  • Greens 10%
  • Mana 6%

Electorate Vote

  • Kelvin Davis (L) 67%
  • Hine Harawira (Mana) 30%

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  13 to 20 September 2017

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 45.8% (-1.5%)
  • Labour 37.3% (-0.5%)
  • Green 7.1% (+2.2%)
  • NZ First 7.1% (+1.1%)
  • Maori 0.4% (-0.7%)
  • ACT 0.6% (+0.1%)
  • Opportunities 0.9% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 45
  • Green 9
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats except Ohariu.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 = 57/122 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 45 + Greens 9 = 54/122 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 2 = 10/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 34.7% (+1.6%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 29.7% (-2.0%)
  • Winston Peters 7.1% (+0.2%)

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,006 voters of whom approx 840 have a party vote preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates: 16 September to 19 September 2017

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (+6.0%)
  • Labour 37.0% (-7%)
  • Green 8.0% (+1%)
  • NZ First 4.9% (-1.1%)
  • Maori 0.5% (-0.4%)
  • ACT 0.3% (-0.3%)
  • Opportunities 2.3% (+0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 46
  • Green 9
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats except Ohariu going to Labour.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 = 59/121 – two fewer the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 46 + Greens 9 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 6 + Maori 1 = 7/121

On this poll there would be a NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 37.0% (+5%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 31% (-3%)
  • Winston Peters 6% (+1%)

Tamaki Makaurau poll

September 18, 2017

Newshub reports on a Reid Research poll:

Party Vote

  • Labour 47.0% (+6.2%)
  • Maori Party 14.5% (+1.7%)
  • NZ First 12.1% (-2.0%)
  • Greens 11.3% (-0.5%)
  • National 12.6% (+5.0%)

Electorate Vote

  • Peeni Henare (L) 46.0% (+7.7%)
  • Shane Taurima (M) 32.6% (+1.7%)
  • Marama Davidson (G) 21.4% (+5.5%)

The changes are from the election result.

Roy Morgan poll September 2017

September 17, 2017

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 866 of whom 825 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 28 August to 10 September 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 40.0% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 39.5% (+7.0%)
  • Green 9.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 6.0% (-5.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • TOP 2.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 50
  • Labour 49
  • Green 11
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats except Ohariu.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 51 + ACT 1 = 51/120 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 49 + Greens 11 = 60/120 – 1 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 2 = 9/120

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 62.0% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 25.0% (+1.5)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (-1.0%)
 +

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,006 voters of whom 840 have a party vote preference

Undecideds: 14%

Dates: 9 September to 13 September 2017

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 40.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 44.0% (+1%)
  • Green 7.0% (+2%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (-3.0%)
  • Maori 0.9% (-1.1%)
  • ACT 0.6% (+0.5%)
  • Opportunities 1.6% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 48
  • Labour 55
  • Green 8
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats except Ohariu going to Labour.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 48 + ACT 1 = 49/120 – 12 fewer the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 55 + Greens 8 = 63/120 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 1 = 8/121

On this poll there would be a Labour/Green Government.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 32.0% (+1%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 34% (-1%)
  • Winston Peters 5% (nc)

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  6 to 11 September 2017

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 47.3% (+4.0%)
  • Labour 37.8% (-1.6%)
  • Green 4.9% (-1.2%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (-0.6%)
  • Maori 1.1% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.1%)
  • Opportunities 1.6% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 49
  • Green 0
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 = 62/121 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 49 + Greens 0 = 49/121 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 2 = 10/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 33.1% (+3.0%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 31.7% (+1.8%)
  • Winston Peters 6.9% (nc)

Waiariki poll

September 11, 2017

Reid Research for Maori TV found:

Party Vote

  • Labour 50%
  • Maori Party 27%
  • NZ First 10%
  • National 6%
  • Greens 5%

Electorate Vote

  • Tamati Coffey (L) 40%
  • Te Ururoa Flavell (M) 60%

Hauraki-Waikato poll

September 11, 2017

Reid Research for Maori TV found:

Party Vote

  • Labour 53%
  • NZ First 15%
  • Maori Party 15%

Electorate Vote

  • Nanaia Mahuta (L) 78%
  • Rahui Papa (M) 22%

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 voters of whom around 800 have a party vote preference

Undecideds:

Dates: 2 September to 6 September 2017

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 39.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 43.0% (nc)
  • Green 5.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 9.0% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 0.1%
  • Opportunities 1.9% (+0.9%)

Projected Seats

  • National 48
  • Labour 53
  • Green 6
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • NZ First 11
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats except Ohariu going to Labour and Te Tai Haururu to Maori Party.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 48 + ACT 1 = 49/121 – 12 fewer the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 53 + Greens 6 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 11 + Maori 2 = 13/121

Possible Governments are:

National/Maori/NZ First 61 seats
Labour/NZ First 64 seats
Labour/Greens/Maori 61 seats

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 31.0% (-2%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 35% (+1%)
  • Winston Peters 5% (+1%)
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