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From Colmar Brunton:

Party Vote

  • National 46%
  • Labour 35%
  • Greens 12%
  • NZ First 4%
  • TOP 1.8%
  • United Future 0.5%
  • Maori 0.4%
  • ACT 0.3%

Electorate Vote

  • Greg O’Connor 48%
  • Peter Dunne 34%
  • Brett Hudson 14%

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,007 voters of whom around 800 have a party vote preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates: 12 August to 16 August 2017

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 37.0% (+13.0%)
  • Green 4.3.0% (-10.7%)
  • NZ First 10.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+1.0%)
  • United Future
  • ACT
  • Mana
  • Opportunities 2.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 49
  • Green 0
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 49 + Greens 0 = 49/121 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 12/121

On this poll National could govern with either the Maori Party or NZ First. Labour could govern with both the Maori Party and NZ First.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 30.0% (+2%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 30% (+24%)
  • Winston Peters 7% (-3%)

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  1 to 8 August 2017

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 44.4% (-0.8%)
  • Labour 33.1% (+9.0%)
  • Green 8.3% (-4.7%)
  • NZ First 9.2% (-3.8%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.1%)
  • ACT 0.6% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • Opportunities 2.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 41
  • Green 10
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 11
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/121 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 10 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 11 + Maori 2 = 13/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 27.7% (+1.9%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 26.3% (+17.6%)
  • Winston Peters 10.0% (-1.9%)

 

Leader Approval

  • Bill English – 51.3% (+0.7%) well and 23.2% (-1.0%) poorly for a net +28.1% (+1.7%)
  • Jacinda Ardern – 51.6%(+22.0% from Little)) well and 13.3% (-32.8%) poorly for a net +38.3% (+52.8%)

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  June 2017

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 45.2% (-2.2%)
  • Labour 24.1% (-2.3%)
  • Green 13.0% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 13.0% (+3.6%)
  • Maori 1.2% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.2% (-0.1%)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.4%)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • Opportunities 2.0% (+1.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 30
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 16
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 30 + Greens 16 = 46/121 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 16 + Maori 1 = 17/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 25.8% (-0.4%)
  • Andrew Little 7.1% (+0.1%)
  • Winston Peters 11.9% (+2.2%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 8.7% (+2.1%)

Leader Approval

  • Bill English – 50.6% (-8.6%) well and 24.2% (+7.5%) poorly for a net +26.4% (-16.1%)
  • Andrew Little – 29.6% (-4.7%) well and 46.1% (+5.4%) poorly for a net -16.5% (-11.1%)

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,005 voters of whom around 800 have a party vote preference

Undecideds: 16%

Dates: 22 July to 27 July 2017

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (nc)
  • Labour 24.0% (-3.0%)
  • Green 15.0% (+4.0%)
  • NZ First 11.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.8%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.1%)
  • ACT 0.3% (nc)
  • Mana 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • Opportunities 2.0% (+0.9%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 30
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 14
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 30 + Greens 18 = 48/122 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 14 + Maori 1 = 15/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 28.0% (+2%)
  • Andrew Little 6% (+1%)
  • Winston Peters 10% (-1%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 6% (nc)

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 868 of whom 794 have a party preference

Undecideds: 8.5%

Dates: 26 June to 9 July 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 43.0% (-3.5%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+5.0%)
  • Green 13.5% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 8.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 0.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 53
  • Labour 37
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 53 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 17 = 54/121 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 12/121

On this poll the NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.0 (+1.5%)
  • Wrong 23.5% (-3.5)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (+2.0%)

UMR on Immigration

July 13, 2017

The Spinoff reports:

  • 34% positive on immigration
  • 41% neutral
  • 23% negative
  • 61% support migrants being able to continue traditional cultural practices, 33% opposed

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,007 voters of whom around 789 have a party vote preference

Undecideds: 15%

Dates: 1 July to 5 July 2017

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 27.0% (-3.0%)
  • Green 11.0% (+2.0%)
  • NZ First 11.0% (+2.0%)
  • Maori 1.8% (+1.2%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.2%)
  • ACT 0.3% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Opportunities 1.1% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 33
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 14
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 14 = 47/122 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 14 + Maori 2 = 16/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 26.0% (-3%)
  • Andrew Little 5% (-3%)
  • Winston Peters 11% (+4%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 6% (nc)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 47% (-3%)
  • Worse 22% (nc)
  • Same 32% (+5%)

Euthanasia

Do you think a person who is terminally or incurably ill should be able to request the assistance of a doctor to end their life?”

  • Yes 74%
  • No 18%

America’s Cup

“Should the Government contribute taxpayer money to the next America’s Cup campaign?”

  • Yes 47%
  • No 34%

Cannabis

“It has been suggested that the sale of cannabis should be legalised. Its cultivation and sale would be
regulated. Do you support or oppose this idea?

  • Support 47%
  • Oppose 41%

Plastic Bag levy

“It has been suggested that New Zealand stores should charge consumers for plastic bags. The charge would
be 15 cents per bag. The purpose of the charge is to reduce the impact of plastic bags on the environment,
including animals and marine life. The money raised from the charge would go towards organisations who aim
to reduce waste.
Do you think introducing a charge for plastic bags is…?”

  • A good idea 82%
  • A bad idea 15%

Roy Morgan reports on the biggest issues:

  1. Poverty 14%
  2. House prices 13.7%
  3. Homelessness 9.6%
  4. Government 6.2%
  5. Immigration 5.5%

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 871 of whom 817 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: 29 May to 11 June 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 46.5% (+3.5%)
  • Labour 25.5% (-3.0%)
  • Green 14.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 9.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 32
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 11
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 17 = 49/121 – 11 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 11 + Maori 2 = 13/121

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 61.5 (+1.0%)
  • Wrong 27.0% (nc)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-1.0%)
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