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Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone – 50/50 landline and mobile

Poll Size: 1,007 voters of whom 861 have a party vote preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates:  7 to 11 April 2018

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (+1%)
  • Labour 43.0% (-5%)
  • Green 6.0% (+1%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (+2.4%)
  • Maori 1.2% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.3% (-0.2%)
  • Opportunities 0.4% (-0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 54
  • Labour 52
  • Green 8
  • ACT 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 54 + ACT 1 = 55/121 – six fewer the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 52 + Greens 8 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 6= 6/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power

Preferred PM

  • Simon Bridges 10.0% (+9%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 37% (-4%)
  • Winston Peters 5% (+1%)
 Economic Outlook
  • Better 37% (nc)
  • Same 29% (-1%)
  • Worse 34 (+1%)

PM’s management of recent events

  • Good 35%
  • Okay 50%
  • Bad 11%

Impact of parenthood on PM’s performance

  • Better 15%
  • Worse 18%
  • No difference 59%

Value in NZ remaining in the Commonwealth

  • Yes 80%
  • No 12%

Top priorities for Budget spending

  • Health 22%
  • Education 13%
  • Housing 10%
  • Public health 8%
  • Roads 7%
  • Poverty 6%
  • Mental Health 4%

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone – 50/50 landline and mobile

Poll Size: 1,007 voters of whom 822 have a party vote preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates: 10 to 14 February 2018

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 43.0% (-3%)
  • Labour 48.0% (+9%)
  • Green 5.0% (-2%)
  • NZ First 2.6% (-2.4%)
  • Maori 0.7% (-0.2%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.4%)
  • Opportunities 0.6% (-0.6%)

Projected Seats

  • National 54
  • Labour 59
  • Green 6
  • ACT 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 120

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 54 + ACT 1 = 55/120 – six fewer the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 69 + Greens 6 = 65/120 – four more than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0= 0/121

On this poll there would be a Labour/Green Government.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 20.0% (-8%) (taken partly after resignation announced)
  • Jacinda Ardern 41% (+4%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (-1%)
 Economic Outlook
  • Better 37% (+1%)
  • Same 30% (+2%)
  • Worse 33 (-3%)

Abortion poll

February 8, 2018

A Curia poll for Family First found:

  • 52% generally support abortion and 29% oppose
  • 65% think society should work to reduce the level of abortions and 17% disagree
  • 86% support registration for abortion providers and premises, 8% opposed
  • 36% were unsure on what time limit should apply for abortions. 50% support 15 weeks or less.
  • 90% oppose abortions based on the sex of the child
  • 49% support women being able to have an abortion because they don’t want to be a mother with 38% opposed
  • 76% support doctors being required to ascertain a women is not under pressure from a third party to have an abortion, with 8% opposed

Israel’s Capital

February 8, 2018

Roy Morgan found:

  • 25% support Trump’s decision to declare Jerusalem the capital of Israel
  • 75% opposed

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  18 to 28 January 2018

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-1.3%)
  • Labour 42.3% (+5.0%)
  • Green 6.0% (-1.1%)
  • NZ First 3.8% (-3.3%)
  • Maori 0.8% (+0.4%)
  • ACT 0.2% (-0.4%)
  • Opportunities 1.4% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 55
  • Green 8
  • ACT 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 55 + Greens 8 = 63/121 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0  = 0/121

On this poll there would be a Labour/Green Government

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 26.0% (-8.7%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 38.0% (+8.3%)

Leader Ratings

  • Bill English – 53.3% well and 24.2% poor = +28.9%
  • Jacinda Ardern – 70.9% well and 9.3% poor = +61.6%

PM’s pregnancy

  • positively affect her performance 34%
  • negatively 20%
  • No impact 39%

Prostitution poll

January 12, 2018

A Curia poll for Family First found:

  • 76% support Councils being able to ban street prostitution with 19% opposed
  • 25% support brothels being able to operate in residential areas and 61% opposed

Electoral issues poll

January 12, 2018

Research NZ found:

  • 56% support showing ID in order to vote and 40% opposed
  • 34% support compulsory voting and 59% opposed
  • 37% are satisfied with MMP and 37% dissatisfied
  • 47% agree MMP results in a more representative Government and 32% disagree
  • 28% agree MMP Governments are less effective than FPP Governments and 52% disagree
  • 47% agree it is not a concern the largest party did not form Government and 42% disagree
  • 41% would vote to retain the Maori seats and 44% would vote to abolish them

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone – 50/50 landline and mobile

Poll Size: 1,007 voters of whom 874 have a party vote preference

Undecideds: 10%

Dates: 29 November to 5 December 2017

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (nc)
  • Labour 39.0% (+2%)
  • Green 7.0% (-1%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 0.9% (+0.4%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • Opportunities 1.2% (-1.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 48
  • Green 9
  • ACT 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 = 58/121 – three fewer the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 48 + Greens 9 = 57/121 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 6= 6/121

On this poll there would be a NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 28.0% (-9%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 37% (+6%)
  • Winston Peters 5% (-1%)

Government Direction

  • Right 51%
  • Wrong 26%
  • Unsure 23%

Kiwisaver investments poll

December 5, 2017

The Herald reports:

Over half of KiwiSavers are apathetic as to where their money is invested, research suggests.

A survey of 1000 people by Westpac has revealed 40 per cent don’t care where their money is invested and a further 16 per cent don’t want to know. …

Westpac’s research revealed 41 per cent of respondents preferred to have their money in a fund which invests in companies making a positive environmental or social contribution.

Fourteen per cent disagreed with that approach, while 45 per cent said they were not concerned. …

But the views were more split when it came to whether investing in companies that make a positive environmental or social contribution was more important than the KiwiSaver rate of return.

Only 24 per cent agreed with that idea while 31 per cent didn’t agree and a further 45 per cent didn’t have an opinion on it.

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 887 of whom 869 have a party preference

Undecideds: 2.0%

Dates: 30 October to 12 November 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 40.5% (-5.5%)
  • Labour 39.5% (+8.5%)
  • Green 10.0% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • TOP 2.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 51
  • Labour 49
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 120

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 51 + ACT 1 = 52/120 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 49 + Greens 13 = 62/120 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 6 = 8/120

On this poll Labour could govern with the Greens.

Country Direction

  • Right 66.5% (+8.0%)
  • Wrong 20.0% (-7.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (-1.0%)
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