Archives: April 2016

UMR poll on tax avoidance

April 28, 2016

The NZ Herald reports:

Pressure over the Panama Papers on the Government is rising after a poll showed a majority of New Zealanders were concerned about the country’s new reputation as a tax haven.

An announcement by international investigators said details of hundreds of thousands of entities, including many with local links, would soon be made public.

A poll by UMR Research, conducted for activist group ActionStation, showed 57 per cent of respondents were “concerned” about New Zealand being a tax haven and the misuse of our foreign trust regime for tax evasion purposes. Just 23 per cent said they were “not concerned” about the issue. …

The UMR poll, of 750 people between April 14 and 18 and with a margin of error of 3.6 per cent, also asked respondents how they thought the Government had handled the fallout from the Panama Papers and whether they thought the review of foreign trusts by former PWC chairman John Shewan, was an adequate response.

Nearly half, or 46 per cent of respondents, said the Government was handling the issue poorly, with only 21 per cent saying it was being handled well. And more than half, or 52 per cent of respondents, said the Shewan review was an inadequate response to the issue.

 

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 843 of whom 784 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.0%

Dates: early April to 17 April 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 42.5% (-3.5%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 14.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 12.5% (+3.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 51
  • Labour 32
  • Green 18
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 15
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 51 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 54/121 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 18 = 50/121 – 11 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 15 + Maori 2 = 17/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 57.5% (-3.5%)
  • Wrong 30.5% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (+2.0%)

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,011 voters of whom 841 have a party preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates: 2 to 6 April 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (+3%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-4%)
  • Green 10.0% (+2.0%)
  • NZ First 9.0% (-1%)
  • Maori 1.1% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.7% (+0.4%)
  • Mana 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • Conservative 0.3% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 34
  • Green 11
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 11
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/121 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 11 = 45/121 – 16 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 11 + Maori 1 = 12/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 39.0% (-1)
  • Andrew Little 7.0% (-2%)
  • Winston Peters 10.0% (+1%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 2.0% (nc)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 43% (+5%)
  • Worse 33% (-6%)
  • Same 24% (+1%)

Sugar Tax

  • 66% support a tax on soda drinks with sugar
  • 29% oppose

Universal Basic Income (UBI)

  • Support 32%
  • Oppose 49%

Medical Marijuana (cannabis)

  • Support 73%
  • Oppose 21%

Immigration Levels

  • More migrants 18%
  • Fewer migrants 27%
  • About right level 51%

 

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