Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

Polling on New Zealand First

September 19, 2008

The graph above shows how NZ First have done in every public poll since the 2005 election.

There appears to be a significant difference between the level of support for NZ First in the Roy Morgan polls, as opposed to the five other polling companies. This is not to say Roy Morgan is necessarily wrong – just that there is some sort of systematic or methodological recurring reason why they show a higher level of support.

I don’t have available the full methodology used by Roy Morgan, so it is hard to speculate on why they get such different results. It might be linked to the fact they poll around 60 people a day and report in two week intervals, rather than the shorter time frames of the other polls.

Leave a comment

Roy Morgan Poll early September 2008

September 18, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 823 (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 01 September to 14 September 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 47.5% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 36.5% (-1.5%)
  • Green 6.5% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (+2.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-2.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • Other 1.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 57
  • Labour 44
  • Green 8
  • NZ First 6
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 57 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 + Maori 6 = 66/125 – majority possible
  • National 57 +Maori 6 = 63/125 – majority possible
  • Labour 44 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 + NZ First 6 + Maori 6 = 65/125 = majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.
Country Direction
  • Right 44.0% (-6.5%)
  • Wrong 41.0% (+5.5%)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (+1.0%)
Leave a comment

NZ Herald DigiPoll August 2008

September 6, 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 respondents, (3.6% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 3 August to 25 August 2008

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald main story and breakdowns here and graphs here.

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (-5.4%)
  • Labour 36.3% (+5.5%)
  • Green 5.1% (-0.4%)
  • NZ First 2.1% (-2.0%)
  • Maori 3.1% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.9%)
  • ACT 2.3% (+2.1%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 62
  • Labour 45
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Green 6
  • United Future 1
  • Maori 6
  • ACT 1
  • Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 62 + ACT 3 = 65/124 – majority possible
  • Labour 45 + Progressive 1 + Greens 6 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 59/124 = no majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive in order of ease are Greens, NZ First, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 46.6% (-0.5%)
  • Clark 45.0% (+1.0%)
  • Peters 5.6% (+0.7%)

Most influential issue

  • Economy 24.7% (+1.8%)
  • Law & Order 17.0% (-0.2%)
  • Tax Cuts 16.3% (-0.2%)
  • Hospital Waiting Lists 13.8% (nc)
Leave a comment

TV3/TNS Poll August 2008

August 25, 2008

Polling Company: TNS

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 14 August to 20 August 2008

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (nc)
  • Labour 37.0% (+2.0%)
  • Green 6.0% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.7%)
  • ACT 2.0% (+1.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 60
  • Labour 46
  • Green 7
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 3
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 60 + ACT 3 = 63/124 – majority possible
  • Labour 46 + Progressive 1 + Greens 7 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 61/124 = no majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, NZ First and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive in order of ease are Greens, NZ First, Maori Party and United Future.
Preferred PM
  • Key 34.0% (+2.0%)
  • Clark 31.0% (+3.0%)
  • Peters 3.0% (-2.0%)
  • English 3.0% (+2.0%)
Leader Ratings
  • Clark – 63% (+6%) performing well vs 22% (-7%) performing badly
  • Key – 56% (+6%) performing well vs 20% (-3%) performing badly
Leave a comment

One News/Colmar Brunton August 2008

August 17, 2008

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,009 total voters and 908 decided voters (3.2% and 3.4% maximum margins of error)

Dates: 9 August to 14 August 2008

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 37.0% (+2.0%)
  • Green 3.5% (-2.5%)
  • NZ First 2.6% (+0.2%)
  • Maori 3.1% (+1.4%)
  • United Future 0.7% (+0.7%)
  • ACT 0.6% (-0.6%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 66
  • Labour 48
  • Green 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Preferred PM

  • Key 36.0% (-2.0%)
  • Clark 33.0% (+2.0%)
  • Peters 3.0% (-1.0%)


Leave a comment

Fairfax Poll August 2008

August 16, 2008

Polling Company: Nielsen

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,102 total voters, 981 decided voters (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 6 to 12 August 2008

Client: Fairfax Media

Report: Stuff and Stuff

Party Support

  • National 54.0% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 35.0% (nc)
  • Green 4.0% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 70
  • Labour 46
  • Green 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Preferred PM

  • Key 43.0% (+4.0%)
  • Clark 31.0 (-1.0%)
  • Peters 2.0% (-1.0%)
Issues
  • 35% think National can afford significantly bigger tax cuts than Labour, 48% disagree
  • 45% think personal finances get better in next 12 months, 30% worse
Leave a comment

Roy Morgan Poll early August 2008

August 15, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 836 (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 28 July to 10 August 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (+0.5%)
  • Labour 34.0% (+1.5%)
  • Green 7.5% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (-1.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (-1.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • Other 0.5% (-0.5%)
Breakdowns are also given for Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Other NI and Other SI.
Projected Seats
  • National 58
  • Labour 41
  • Green 9
  • NZ First 8
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 126
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Country Direction
  • Right 44.5% (+6.0%)
  • Wrong 41.0% (-6.0%)
  • Can’t Say 14.5% (nc)
Leave a comment

Roy Morgan Poll late July 2008

August 8, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 834 (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 14 July to 27 July 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 47.5% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+2.0%)
  • Green 8.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 3.0% (+2.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 2.5% (+2.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Other 1.0% (+1.0%)
Breakdowns are also given for Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Other NI and Other SI.
Projected Seats
  • National 57
  • Labour 39
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Green 10
  • United Future 1
  • Maori 6
  • ACT 3
  • Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Country Direction
  • Right 38.5% (+2.0%)
  • Wrong 47.0% (-2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.5% (+0.5%)
Leave a comment

Marae-Digipoll Hauraki-Waikato August 2008 Poll

August 8, 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Ikaroa-Rawhiti voters

Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 7 July to 21 July 2008

Client: Marae

Report: None yet

Party Support

  • Maori Party 44.9%
  • Labour 33.4%
  • National 12.0%

Candidate Support

  • Nanaia Mahuta, Labour 45.3%
  • Angeline Greensill, Maori Party 41.4%

Most Liked MP

  • Pita Sharples, Labour Maori Party 25.5%
  • Nanaia Mahuta, Labour 13.4%
  • Winston Peters, NZ First, 10.6%
Leave a comment

NZ Herald DigiPoll July 2008

July 29, 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 770 respondents, 660 decided respondents (3.6% and 3.9% maximum margins of error)

Dates: Not stated but normally over three weeks, and probably up until 26 July 2008

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald main story and breakdowns here and graphs here.

Party Support

  • National 55.4% (+0.5%)
  • Labour 30.8% (-1.6%)
  • Progressive – 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 4.1% (+0.8%)
  • Green 5.5% (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.9% (+0.8%)
  • Maori – 2.6% (+0.8%)
  • ACT – 0.2% (-0.6%)
14.3% of respondents were undecided
Projected Seats
  • National 70
  • Labour 39
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Green 7
  • United Future 1
  • Maori 6
  • ACT 1
  • Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Preferred PM

  • Key 47.1% (+1.1%)
  • Clark 44.0% (-1.0%)
  • Peters 4.9%

Most influential issue

  • Economy 22.9%
  • Law & Order 17.2%
  • Tax Cuts 16.5%
  • Hospital Waiting Lists 13.8%
Leave a comment
« Later posts
Earlier posts »

Curia's blog specialises in polls and polling, with a mainly New Zealand focus. More

Never miss a poll: Subscribe via email

Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 33.8% 42
Labour 31.2% 39
Green 9.8% 12
Act 9.3% 12
NZ First 7.0% 9
TPM 4.4% 6
CR 50.1% 63
CL 45.3% 57
7/04/25
Embed | Methodology

Explore the Archives

By date

By company

By issue

Get our paywalled newsletter on polling insights Subscribe

Get Curia's blog posts
via email