UMR flag polls Mar 2016
March 22, 2016
UMR did another poll on the flag referendum:
- 58% keep flag
- 35% change
- 7% unsure
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UMR flag poll
March 7, 2016
Stuff reports:
As voting gets underway there is still overwhelming support for the current flag over a change to the silver fern design.
The latest UMR Research poll undertaken in the last week of February has 59 per cent wanting to keep the flag and 32 per cent in favour of change.
Because this poll was done over the phone, those people who were unsure which way they would vote were included and came out at 9 per cent.
One News Colmar Brunton poll February 2016
February 22, 2016
Polling Company: Colmar Brunton
Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,004 of whom 855 had a party preference
Undecideds: 11%
Dates: 13 to 17 February 2016
Client: One News
Report: Colmar Brunton
Party Support
- National 47.0% (nc)
- Labour 32.0% (+1%)
- Green 8.0% (-4.0%)
- NZ First 10.0% (+1%)
- Maori 1.0% (+0.2%)
- United Future 0.0% (nc)
- ACT 0.3% (+0.1%)
- Mana 0.3% (+0.3%)
- Conservative 0.6% (+0.2%)
Projected Seats
- National 58
- Labour 39
- Green 10
- ACT 1
- Maori 1
- United Future 1
- NZ First 12
- Total 122
This is based on no change in electorate seats.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 39 + Greens 10 = 49/122 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
- C – NZ First 12 + Maori 1 = 13/122
On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.
Preferred PM
- John Key 40.0% (nc)
- Andrew Little 9.0% (+1%)
- Winston Peters 9.0% (+1%)
- Jacinda Ardern 2.0% (-1%)
NZ Flag
- Current Flag 63%
- Alternative Flag 26%
Police Pursuits
- Police should be able to pursue any vehicle that fails to stop 68%
- NZ law should be changed 26%
TPP
- May impact our sovereignty and I’m concerned 44%
- May impact our sovereignty and not a big concern 22%
- Not much impact of sovereignty 24%
Newshub Reid Research Flag poll
February 2, 2016
Newshub reports:
The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is bad news for Prime Minister John Key, with 61 percent of people saying no, they don’t want to change the New Zealand flag. Only 30 percent want a change.
UMR Flag Poll October 2015
October 19, 2015
UMR polled 1,000 people online:
1st preferences:
- Red white and blue fern 36%
- Black white and blue fern 33%
- Red Peak 18%
- Black and white fern 7%
- Koru 6%
2nd round:
- Red white and blue fern 37%
- Black white and blue fern 34%
- Red Peak 21%
- Black and white fern 8%
3rd round:
- Red white and blue fern 39%
- Black white and blue fern 38%
- Red Peak 23%
4th round:
- Red white and blue fern 51.8%
- Black white and blue fern 48.2%
Head to head matches vs current NZ Flag:
- Red white and blue fern 36%
- Black white and blue fern 35%
- Red Peak 19%
- Black and white fern 18%
- Koru 13%
NZ Flag September 2015
October 16, 2015
ResearchNZ found:
- 28% want a new flag
- 61% do not
- 43% support adding Red Peak to the referendum, 45% do not
- The most popular alternative designs are Black, white and blue silver fern 31%, red white and blue silver fern 23%, Red Peak 22%, Koru 5%, black and white fern 1%
3 News Reid Research poll September 2015
September 23, 2015
Polling Company: Reid Research
Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,000
Undecideds: Unknown
Dates: 08 to 16 September 2015
Client: 3 News
Report: 3 News
Party Support
- National 47.3% (+0.3%)
- Labour 33.0% (+1.9%)
- Green 10.0% (-1.4%)
- NZ First 7.9% (-0.5%)
- Maori 0.5% (-0.1%)
- United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
- ACT 0.6% (+0.1%)
- Mana 0.0% (nc)
- Conservative 0.5% (-0.2%)
Projected Seats
- National 57
- Labour 40
- Green 12
- ACT 1
- Maori 1
- United Future 1
- NZ First 9
- Total 121
This is based on no change in electorate seats.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 40 + Greens 12 = 52/121 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
- C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/121
On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.
Preferred PM
- John Key 39.5% (+1.2%)
- Andrew Little 10.8% (+0.6%)
- Winston Peters 8.6% (-2.7%)
- Jacinda Ardern 3.5%
NZ Flag
- Change flag 25%
- Keep flag 69%
Private Prisons
- Govt only should run them 70%
- 13% okay with Serco running them
- 13% okay with private providers if not Serco
Labour Deputy Leadership
- Jacinda Ardern 33%
- Annette King 25%
- Kelvin Davis 11%
- Phil Twyford 3%
One News Colmar Brunton poll September 2015
September 13, 2015
Polling Company: Colmar Brunton
Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,002 of whom 849 have a party preference
Undecideds: 11%
Dates: 29 August to 02 September 2015
Client: One News
Report: Colmar Brunton
Party Support
- National 47.0% (nc)
- Labour 32.0% (nc)
- Green 12.0% (-1.0%)
- NZ First 7.0% (nc)
- Maori 1.2% (+0.8%)
- United Future 0.0% (nc)
- ACT 0.1% (-0.3%)
- Mana 0.2% (-0.3%)
- Conservative 0.1% (+0.1%)
Projected Seats
- National 57
- Labour 39
- Green 14
- ACT 1
- Maori 1
- United Future 1
- NZ First 9
- Total 122
This is based on no change in electorate seats.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 39 + Greens 14 = 53/122 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
- C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/122
On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.
Preferred PM
- John Key 40.0% (nc)
- Andrew Little 10.0% (+2.0%)
- Winston Peters 6.0% (-1.0%)
- Jacinda Ardern 3.0% (+1.0%)
Economic Outlook
- Better 33% (-3%)
- Worse 45% (+4%)
- Same 22% (-2%)
NZ Flag
- Change flag 28% (+2%)
- Keep flag 66% (+2%)
- Unsure 6% (-3%)
Foreign Investment in Sensitive Land
- Continue current approval process 37%
- Ban all foreign investment in sensitive land 54%
Private Prisons
- Should should be privately run 21%
- All should be run by Corrections 69%
TPP
- Should sign 24%
- Not sign 44%
- Don’t know 32%
UMR flag poll
September 2, 2015
UMR polled 1,000 people in August 2015 on flag options. Findings.
Preferred Alternative Design
- Silver Fern and Southern Cross on red and blue 25%
- Silver Fern and Southern Cross on black and blue 19%
- Silver Fern and Southern Cross on black 8%
- Silver Fern and Southern Cross on red and black 6%
First Preference vs current flag
- 52% change to preferred
- 48% retain
Care about design of flag
- 42% a lot
- 35% a fair amount
- 17% not that much
- 5% not at all
NZ Herald DigiPoll August 2015
August 26, 2015
Polling Company: DigiPoll
Subscriber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 750 of whom 660 have a party preference
Undecideds: 12%
Dates: 14 August to 24 August 2015
Client: NZ Herald
Report: NZ Herald
Party Support
- National 50.8% (-0.2%)
- Labour 31.0% (+2.3%)
- Green 9.2% (-1.6%)
- NZ First 6.9% (+0.8%)
- Maori 0.2% (-0.6%)
- United Future 0.0% (nc)
- ACT 0.2% (-0.6%)
- Mana/Internet 0.2% (+0.2%)
- Conservative 0.6% (-0.5%)
Projected Seats
- National 62
- Labour 38
- Green 11
- ACT 1
- Maori 1
- United Future 1
- NZ First 8
- Total 122
This is based on no change in electorate seats.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 38 + Greens 11 = 49/122 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
- C – NZ First 8 + Maori 1 = 9/122
On this poll National would be able to govern alone.
Preferred PM
- John Key 63.7% (-0.9%)
- Andrew Little 13.3% (-0.6%)
- Winston Peters 11.6% (-0.4%)
- Jacinda Ardern 3.9% (+3.4%)
Country Direction
- Right 50.9% (-4.4%)
- Wrong 40.9% (+4.9%)
Next National Leader
- Bill English 30.3%
- Steven Joyce 14.2%
- Paula Bennett 11.4%
- Simon Bridges 7.2%
Next Labour Leader
- Annette King 21.8%
- Jacinda Ardern 20.1%
- Grant Robertson 18.0%
- Phil Twyford 4.0%
Private Prisons
- 57% say prisons should always be run by the state
- 38% say there is a place for well-run private companies operating prisons.
Foreign House Buyers
- 32% support a ban on foreigners buying houses
- 20% oppose a ban
- 42% would support a ban if there is evidence foreign buyers are pushing prices up
NZ Flag
- 53% against change in principle
- 23% support change in principle
- 24% depends on alternative designs
TPP
- 30% oppose TPP
- 20% support TPP
- 45% not know enough to have a view
Iraq
- 59% support the deployment of troops to do training (+2%)
- 34% oppose