Archives: Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan poll May 2016

May 23, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 870 of whom 822 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: early May to 15 May 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 45.5% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 29.5% (+3.5%)
  • Green 12.0% (-2.5%)
  • NZ First 9.5% (-3.0%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 36
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 12
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/121 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 = 51/121 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 12 + Maori 1 = 13/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 59.0% (+1.5%)
  • Wrong 29.0% (-1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (nc)
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Roy Morgan poll April 2016

April 26, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 843 of whom 784 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.0%

Dates: early April to 17 April 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 42.5% (-3.5%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 14.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 12.5% (+3.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 51
  • Labour 32
  • Green 18
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 15
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 51 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 54/121 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 18 = 50/121 – 11 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 15 + Maori 2 = 17/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 57.5% (-3.5%)
  • Wrong 30.5% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (+2.0%)
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Roy Morgan Poll March 2016

March 19, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 861 of whom 792 have a party preference

Undecideds: 8.0%

Dates: early March to 13 March 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 28.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 14.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 9.0% (+3.0%)
  • Maori 1.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 34
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 11
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 17 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 11 + Maori 1 = 12/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 56.5% (-3.0%)
  • Wrong 28.5% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (+2.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll February 2016

February 19, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 896 of whom 833 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.0%

Dates: early February to 14 January 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 48.5% (+1.5%)
  • Labour 27.0% (-0.5%)
  • Green 14.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-2.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 33
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 11
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/121 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 18 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 1 = 8/121

On this poll National could form a CR Government with either ACT or United Future.

Country Direction

  • Right 56.5% (-3.0%)
  • Wrong 28.5% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (+2.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll January 2016

January 22, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 876 of whom 819 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: early January to 17 January 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 27.5% (-1.0%)
  • Green 14.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 3.0% (+1.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 33
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First8
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 17 = 50/121 – 11 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 4 = 12/121

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power as both CR and CL would need them to form a Government. The CL would need NZ First also.

Country Direction

  • Right 59.5% (nc)
  • Wrong 28.0% (-3.0)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (+3.0%)
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Roy Morgan poll December 2015

December 14, 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 882 of whom 811 have a party preference

Undecideds: 8.0%

Dates: early December to 06 December 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (nc)
  • Labour 28.5% (-1.0%)
  • Green 13.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 33
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/120 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 16 = 50/120 – 11 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 2 = 9/120

On this poll National could govern with ACT and United Future.

Country Direction

  • Right 59.5% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 31.0% (+2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 9.5% (-2.0%)
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Roy Morgan poll November 2015

November 13, 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 862 of whom 806 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: early November to 08 November 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 29.5% (+0.5%)
  • Green 12.0% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+1.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 36
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 2 = 9/121

On this poll National could govern with ACT and United Future.

Country Direction

  • Right 60.0% (+7.0%)
  • Wrong 28.5% (-2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-4.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll October 2015

October 16, 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 882 of whom 820 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.0%

Dates: early October to 11 October 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (+5.5%)
  • Labour 29.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 11.5% (-3.5%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.5% (-1.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 35
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/121 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 14 = 49/121 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 1 = 9/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Country Direction

  • Right 53.0% (-5.0%)
  • Wrong 31.0% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 16.0% (+3.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll September 2015

September 23, 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 876 of whom 806 have a party preference

Undecideds: 8.0%

Dates: early August to 13 September 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-6.0%)
  • Labour 31.0% (+4.0%)
  • Green 15.0% (+4.0%)
  • NZ First 5.5% (-2.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 54
  • Labour 37
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 54 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 56/121 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 18 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 2 = 12/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.0% (+4.0%)
  • Wrong 29.5% (-4.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (+0.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll August 2015

August 21, 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 892 of whom 843 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: early August to 16 August 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 50.5% (+7.5%)
  • Labour 27.0% (-5.0%)
  • Green 11.0% (-2.0%)
  • NZ First 8.0% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.0% (-1.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 33
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/121 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 13 = 46/121 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 12/121

On this poll National would be able to govern alone.

Country Direction

  • Right 54.0% (+3.0%)
  • Wrong 34.0% (+1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (-4.0%)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 36.2% 46
Labour 27.6% 35
Act 9.5% 12
Green 12.6% 16
NZ First 6.4% 8
Maori 2.5% 3
Total 94.7% 120
11/10/23
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