Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

TV3/TNS Poll July 2008

July 21, 2008

Polling Company: TNS

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: Not stated but usually 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: Not stated but probably up until 18 July 2008

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 35.0% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 4.0% (+0.1%)
  • Green 7.0% (+1.2%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 62
  • Labour 45
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Green 9
  • United Future 1
  • Maori 6
  • ACT 1
  • Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Preferred PM

  • Key 32.0% (-3.0%)
  • Clark 28.0% (-1.0%)
  • Peters 6.0% (nc)
  • English 3.0% (+2.0%)
Personal Attacks
69% of respondents thought Helen Clark’s attack on John Key being on holiday was a personal attack, 16% said it was based on policy and 15% did not know.
Leave a comment

Marae Ikaroa-Rawhiti Poll July 2008

July 21, 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Ikaroa-Rawhiti voters

Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: Around two and a half weeks to 14 July 2008

Client: Marae

Report: None yet

Candidate Support

The poll was reported in two parts. Up until 8 July 2008 Derek Fox (Maori Party) had 50.5% to 41.9% for Parekura Horomia (Labour).
On 8 July stories of domestic violence in the past of Derek Fox were published. Responses after that date were 47.1% for Fox and 45.6% for Horomia.
Note that if half the sample were done before and after 8 July, the margin of error for each part is 7.1%.
The last Marae-Digipoll in 2007 in Ikaroa-Rawhiti had the Maori Party candidate (not selected at that stage) at 54% and the Labour Party candidate (Horomia) at 31%, so the race has tightened since then regardless of the domestic violence revelations.
Leave a comment

Fairfax July 2008 Poll

July 19, 2008

Polling Company: Nielsen

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,049 total voters, 913 decided voters (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 9 to 15 July 2008

Client: Fairfax Media

Report: Stuff and Stuff

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 35.0% (+5.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 4.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 5.0% (-2.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 65
  • Labour 45
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Green 6
  • United Future 1
  • Maori 6
  • ACT 1
  • Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Preferred PM

  • Key 39.0% (-4.0%)
  • Clark 32.0 (+2.0%)
  • Peters 3.0% (+1.0%)
Leader Strengths
  • Better in a crisis – Clark 53%, Key 34%
  • Better on world stage – Clark higher
  • Better on law and order – Key 49%, Clark 37%
  • More capabale at managing economy – Key 49%, Clark 38%
  • Strong – Clark 70%, Key 41%
  • Honest – both at 40%
Leave a comment

Roy Morgan early July 2008 Poll

July 18, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 871 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 30 June to 13 July 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (+0.5%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+2.5%)
  • Green 7.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.0% (-1.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (-1.5%)
  • Other 0.0% (-0.5%)
Breakdowns are also given for Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Other NI and Other SI.
Projected Seats
  • National 62
  • Labour 37
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Green 9
  • United Future 1
  • Maori 6
  • ACT 1
  • Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Country Direction
  • Right 36.5% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 49.5% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14% (nc)
Leave a comment

Ikaroa-Rawhiti Poll next Sunday on Marae

July 13, 2008

There will be much interest is the poll done in Ikaroa-Rawhiti by Marae and presumably DigiPoll. Presumably it was done during or after the Derek Fox allegations. The results will be on Marae on TV One on 20 July.

Leave a comment

Jimungo Pulse of the Nation survey

July 10, 2008

Note this is not a poll, but an online survey/competition and is not scientific. It is included here as a reference.

Company: Jimungo

Method: Online, not random but self-selecting

Poll Size: Approx 6,000

Dates: 23 June to 7 July 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Scoop

Party Support

  • National 57.2%
  • Labour 24.4%
  • Green 4.7%
  • NZ First 4.2%
  • Maori 2.3%
  • ACT 1.6%
  • United Future 0.9%
  • Progressive 0.2%
  • Other 4.5%
Leave a comment

Roy Morgan Political Poll to 29 June 2008

July 6, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Unknown – presumably phone

Poll Size: 930 (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 16 to 29 June 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 51.5% (-1%)
  • Labour 30.5% (-1%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 4.0% (nc)
  • Green 8.0% (+1%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 2.0% (nc)
  • Other 0.5% (nc)
Breakdowns are also given for Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Other NI and Other SI.
Country Direction
  • Right 37% (-5.5%)
  • Wrong 49% (+8.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14% (-3.0%)
Leave a comment
« Later posts

Curia's blog specialises in polls and polling, with a mainly New Zealand focus. More

Never miss a poll: Subscribe via email

Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 29.3% 36
Labour 34.5% 43
Green 9.4% 12
Act 7.1% 9
NZ First 12.7% 16
TPM 2.8% 4
CR 49.1% 61
CL 46.7% 59
17/05/26
Embed | Methodology

Explore the Archives

By date

By company

By issue

Get our paywalled newsletter on polling insights Subscribe

Get Curia's blog posts
via email