Archives: NZ Issues Polls

Wellington local government amalgamation poll

February 24, 2015

The Dominion Post reports:

Nearly three quarters of people living in the Wellington region do not want to be part of a proposed super-city, a new poll reveals.

Wellington City Council has released the results of a Nielsen survey it commissioned this month, which found just 26 per cent support across the Wellington region for merging its nine councils. …

Wellington City Council’s survey found support for the proposal was just 17 per cent in the Wairarapa and 18 per cent in Hutt Valley.

Support in Porirua and Kapiti was slightly higher at 29 per cent, while 30 per cent of those living in Wellington city were keen on the idea.

Wade-Brown said there was still an opportunity to re-think the super-city proposal and come up with a new approach.

The survey showed an alternative model with a separate Wairarapa council and one or more metro councils formed across the remainder of the region would have 50 per cent support.

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One News Colmar Brunton poll February 2015

February 23, 2015

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 840 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 10%

Dates: 14 February to 18 February 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (+3.9%)
  • Labour 31.0% (+5.8%
  • Green 10.0% (-2.5%)
  • ACT 0.3% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.1%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.4% (-1.4%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (-2.1%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (-2.9%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 39
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/122 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 12 = 51/122 – 11 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 2 + NZ First 7 = 9/122

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 41% (-2.0%)
  • Andrew Little 12% (nc from Cunliffe)
  • Winston Peters 7% (+2.0%)

Islamic State

  • 48% support sending New Zealand troops to help train Iraqi security forces to fight ISIS
  • 42% opposed

Alcohol Sponsorship and Advertising

  • 47% support a ban on alcohol sponsorship and advertising
  • 45% opposed
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3 News Reid Research Poll Jan 2015

February 2, 2015

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 20 to 28 January 2015

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 49.8% (+4.3%)
  • Labour 29.1% (+3.5%)
  • Green 9.3% (-5.1%)
  • ACT 0.4% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 1.3%  (+0.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.6% (-1.4%)
  • NZ First 6.9% (-0.2%)
  • Conservative 2.7% (-2.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 36
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 12 = 48/122 – 14 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 2 = 10/122

On this poll National could govern alone.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 44.0% (-0.1%)
  • Andrew Little 9.8% (-2.5% from Cunliffe)

Andrew Little as Leader

  • Better match for Key than predecessors 55%
  • The same 12%
  • Worse 18%
  • Don’t Know 18%

Leader Ratings

  • John Key – performing well 63%, performing badly 24%, net approval = +39%
  • Andrew Little – performing well 45%, performing badly 17%, net approval = +28%

Whale Oil

  • Key should stop texting Whale Oil 68%
  • Key should continue texting 18%
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3 News Reid Research poll mid September 2014

September 17, 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 09 to 15 September 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-2.2%)
  • Labour 25.6% (-0.5%)
  • Green 14.4% (+1.4%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • Maori 1.1%  (-0.2%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.0% (+0.3%)
  • NZ First 7.1% (+1.2%)
  • Conservative 4.9% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 33
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/124 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 18 + Mana/Internet 3 = 54/124 – nine fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 3 = 12/124

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 44.1% (-1.2%)
  • David Cunliffe 12.3% (nc)
  • Winston Peters 9.1% (+1.2%)

Preferred Coalition Partner for National

  • All voters – NZ First 54%, Conservatives 37%
  • National voters – NZ First 36%, Conservatives 54%

Kim Dotcom and hacking

  • 38% think Kim Dotcom was behind hacking of Whale Oil’s e-mails
  • 32% do not
  • 30% unsure
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One News Colmar Brunton poll early September 2014

September 6, 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,001 respondents, of whom 882 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 7%

Dates: 30 August to 03 September 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-2.0%
  • Green 11.0% (-1.0%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 0.2% (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.4% (+0.8%)
  • NZ First 7.0% (+1.0%)
  • Conservative 2.9% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 32
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 8
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/125 – two more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 3 = 49/125 – 14 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 8 = 11/125

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 48% (+1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 14% (+2%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (-1.0%)

Next National Party Leader

  • Bill English 28%
  • Steven Joyce 16%
  • Paula Bennett 7%
  • Judith Collins 2%
  • Michael Woodhouse 2%

Economic Outlook

  • Better 56% (nc)
  • Worse 17% (-2%)
  • Same 27% (+2%)

Preferred Housing Policies

  • National 44%
  • Labour 21%
  • Greens 31%
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NZ Herald DigiPoll early September 2014

September 5, 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds:

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom xxx had a party preference

Dates: 28 August to 03 September 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.1% (-0.6%)
  • Labour 23.8% (-0.3%)
  • Green 11.4% (nc)
  • NZ First 6.0% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.4% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.4% (+0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 3.5% (+0.1%)
  • Conservative 3.8% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 30
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 4
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/123 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 30 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 4 = 48/123 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/123

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key
  • Cunliffe
  • Peters
  • Norman

Coalition preferences

  • 47% say National should go with NZ First, 35% Conservatives
  • Among National voters, 47% Conservatives, 38% NZ First

Farmers and Environment

  • 47% agree that farmers were continually improving their practices and were unfairly criticised by environmentalists.
  • 39% of respondents agreed that farmers were moving too slowly to improve their practices
  • 7% said they deserve all the criticism they get from environmentalists
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One News Colmar Brunton poll late August 2014

September 2, 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 843 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 23 to 27 August 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (+2.0%
  • Green 12.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 0.4% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.6% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 1.6% (-2.3%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (+1.0%)
  • Conservative 3.2% (+0.8%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 35
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 2
  • NZ First 8
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/123 – one fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 2 = 51/123 – 11 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 8 = 11/124

On this poll National could form a centre-right Governmentwith either the Maori Party or NZ First. Labour could form a Government with both NZ First and Maori Party (and Greens and Internet Mana).

Preferred PM

  • John Key 47% (+2.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 12% (+2%)
  • Winston Peters 5% (+1.0%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 56% (+8%)
  • Worse 19% (-3%)
  • Same 25% (-5%)

Hager book

  • Believe allegations 41% (+13%)
  • Not believe 35% (-8%)
  • Unsure 24% (-5%)
  • Net negatively influenced view of National 13% (+8%)
  • Collins should stand down 61% agree, 26% disagree
  • Key informed of SIS OIA released – 41% believe he was not, 44% do not believe him

 

 

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NZ Herald Digipoll late August 2014

August 28, 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 7.5%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 691 had a party preference

Dates: 21 to 27 August 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.7% (+0.7%)
  • Labour 24.1% (-1.1%)
  • Green 11.4% (-1.7%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (+0.7%)
  • Maori 1.0% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.2% (-0.2%)
  • ACT 0.3% (-0.3%)
  • Mana/Internet 3.4% (+1.3%)
  • Conservative 3.3% (+0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 31
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 4
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/124 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 4 = 49/124 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 6 + Maori 3 = 9/124

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 67.8% (+3.0%)
  • Cunliffe 11.6% (-3.0%)
  • Peters 8.2% (+3.1%)
  • Norman 3.8% (+0.3%)

 Judith Collins

  • Should resign 46%
  • Should not resign 46%

Dirty Politics book

  • 53% say media coverage justified
  • 30% say not
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Te Tai Hauāuru poll August 2014

August 27, 2014

Reid Research have done a 500 person poll of Te Tai Hauāuru for Maori TV. Key results are:

Party Vote

  • Labour 36% (-6% from election)
  • Maori Party 23% (+2%)
  • National 12% (+4%)
  • Greens 11% (nc)
  • Internet Mana 11% (+3%)
  • NZ First 7% (-1%)

Electorate Vote

  • Maori Party 32% (-16%)
  • Labour 29% (-1%)
  • Greens 11% (nc)
  • Mana 10% (+1%)

Most important issues (rated 6/10 or higher)

  • Family violence 96%
  • Education 95%
  • Child poverty 95%
  • Cost of living 93%
  • Te Reo Maori 93%
  • Maori unemployment 90%
  • Housing 87%
  • Maori Leadership 81%
  • Mining 62%

If Maori Party balance of power

  • Prefer Labour 63%
  • Prefer National 24%

If National wins, Should Maori Party work with them?

  • Yes 67%
  • No 27%
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One News Colmar Brunton on Hager allegations

August 16, 2014

A snap One News Colmar Brunton poll found:

  • 77% have heard of Hager book, 23% have not
  • 28% believe National organised smear campaigns, 43% do not and 29% unsure
  • 9% say revelations have negatively influenced their view of National, 4% positively influences and 82% no difference
  • 12% say now more likely to vote on election day, 1% less likely and 87% no difference
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 32.7% 40
Labour 33.1% 41
Green 10.2% 13
Act 7.9% 10
NZ First 10.2% 13
TPM 2.6% 3
CR 50.8% 63
CL 46.0% 57
16/02/26
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