Archives: NZ Issues Polls

One News Colmar Brunton poll July 2015

July 19, 2015

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 of whom 856 have a party preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 11 to 15 July 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 32.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 13.0% (+3.0%)
  • NZ First 7.0% (nc)
  • Maori 0.4% (-1.1%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.4% (+0.3%)
  • Mana 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.0% (-2.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 39
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/123 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 16 = 55/123 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 1 = 9/123

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 40.0% (-4.0%)
  • Andrew Little 8.0% (-1.0%)
  • Winston Peters 7.0% (-2.0%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 36% (-9%)
  • Worse 41% (+10%)
  • Same 24% (nc)

Genetic Modification

  • 44% support law change to allow NZ businesses to use some form of GM organisms
  • 49% oppose

Refugees

  • 53% support increasing quote from 750 to 1,000
  • 44% opposed

Organ donation compensation

  • 67% say organ donors should get compensation similar to ACC
  • 22% say organ donors should get the sickness benefit

Euthanasia

  • 75% support a terminally ill person being able to have a medical practitioner assist them to end their lives
  • 21% opposed
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Security Issues poll

July 12, 2015

Curia did a poll for the Dept of PM and Cabinet in October 2014 on security issues.

Findings include:

  • 10% of NZers think NZ faces a strong or great risk from terrorism, 39% a moderate risk, 39% a minimal risk and 9% no risk.
  • 68% of NZers think the GCSB overall is good (or very good) for New Zealand and only 7% bad
  • 76% of NZers think the SIS overall is good for New Zealand and only 5% bad
  • 71% of NZers think the Five Eyes agreement is good for New Zealand and only 9% bad
  • 29% of NZers think NZ intelligence agencies are interested in their private communications, while 62% do not think they are interested
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Trust in Occupations

June 9, 2015

Research NZ asked 500 NZers to rate how much they trusted 10 occupations on a 0 to 10 basis. The proportions who gave a 7 or higher were:

  1. Fire Service 93% (-4%)
  2. Ambulance Service 92% (-4%)
  3. Doctors and nurses 87% (-4%)
  4. Police 75% (-9%)
  5. School teachers 75% (-6%)
  6. Government employees 44% (+2%)
  7. Lawyers 43% (-4%)
  8. Local councillors 31% (+1%)
  9. MPs 25% (+7%)
  10. Journalists 23% (nc)

The change from 2013 is in brackets

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3 News Reid Research Poll May 2015

June 3, 2015

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 21 to 27 May 2015

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 46.4% (-3.4%)
  • Labour 30.4% (+1.3%)
  • Green 11.1% (+1.8%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 1.1%  (-0.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.0% (-0.6%)
  • NZ First 8.1% (+1.3%)
  • Conservative 1.9% (-0.8%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 37
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 14 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 1 = 11/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 39.4% (-4.6%)
  • Andrew Little 11.6% (+1.8%)
  • Winston Peters 11.2% (+3.6%)

John Key

  • Went too far with ponytail pulling 52%
  • Was just horsing about 42%

House Affordability

  • 33% says Government is doing enough to keep prices under control
  • 60% say not enough
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One News Colmar Brunton poll May 2015

June 2, 2015

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,003 respondents, of whom 833 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates:  23 May to 27 May 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (-1%)
  • Labour 31.0% (nc)
  • Green 10.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.4%)
  • Maori 1.4% (+0.6%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.0% (-1.1%)
  • NZ First 7.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 2.3% (+0.8%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 38
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/122 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 12 = 50/122 – 12 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 2 + NZ First 9 = 12/122

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government with either the Maori Party or NZ First. Labour could not form a Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 44% (+2%)
  • Andrew Little 9% (-2%)
  • Winston Peters 9% (-1%)

2015 Budget

  • 4% say made them better off
  • 10% say worse off
  • 72% no change

Property Tax Rules

  • 14% say Govt’s changes to tax investment homes wold within two years go too far
  • 28% say not far enough
  • 50% say are about right

 

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Euthanasia Poll April 2015

May 4, 2015

Research NZ surveyed 501 people:

  • 74% support doctors being allowed to end a patient’s life if they request it and have a painful incurable disease
  • 20% opposed to doctors being allowed to end a patient’s life if they request it and have a painful incurable disease
  • 51% support a close relative being allowed to end a patient’s life if they request it and have a painful incurable disease
  • 41% opposed to a close relative being allowed to end a patient’s life if they request it and have a painful incurable disease
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Head of State Poll April 2015

May 4, 2015

New Zealand Republic announced:

Our annual poll was conducted between April 6 and April 21 and shows 47% of Kiwis want our next Head of State to be a New Zealander. This is a rise of 3% since June 2014.

This is great news for our campaign with the poll showing a corresponding decrease in support for the British Monarch to 46%. This is the highest ever result in our annual poll and the first time we have measured higher support than the Monarchy. Undecided voters remained at 7%.

The poll of 1000 people was carried out on landlines by Curia Market Research.

The detailed results were:

What is your preference for New Zealand’s next Head of State out of the following three options?

 * The next British Monarch becomes King of New Zealand? 46%

* New Zealand has a New Zealander as Head of State elected by a two thirds majority in Parliament   11%

* New Zealand has a New Zealander as Head of State who is elected by the popular vote 36%

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NZ Herald DigiPoll April 2015

April 29, 2015

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 of whom 662 have a party preference

Undecideds: 11.8%

Dates: 17 April to 26 April 2015

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (+0.6%)
  • Labour 28.7% (-0.2%)
  • Green 10.8% (+1.3%)
  • NZ First 6.1% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 0.8% (-0.7%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.8% (+0.4%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.1% (-1.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 35
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/121 – four more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 13 = 48/121 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 1 = 8/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 64.6% (-0.4%)
  • Andrew Little 13.9% (+0.3%)
  • Winston Peters 12.0% (+6.1%)

Ports of Auckland

  • 46% of Aucklanders support the Port extensions, 50% are opposed
  • 45% of non Aucklanders support the Port extensions, 45% are opposed

NZ Flag

  • Time for a new flag yes 25%
  • Time for a new flag no 70%

Surplus

  • 37% say not achieving surplus by 2014/15 does not matter
  • 29% says not achieving surplus seriously dents National’s credibility
  • 29% says not achieving surplus matters but not much if only delayed a year

Auckland Mayoralty (asked of all NZers, not just Aucklanders)

  • Phil Goff 27%
  • John Campbell 21%
  • Len Brown 8%
  • John Banks 7%
  • Maurice Williamson 5%
  • Penny Hulse 5%
  • Cameron Brewer 3%
  • Don’t Know 25%

Iraq

  • 57% agree with decision to deploy troops
  • 34% disagree

Intelligence Agencies

  • 33% say they always work within the law
  • 30% say did not have confidence in them in the past but now more confident they act properly
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Q+A poll on Iraq

April 26, 2015

One News reports:

A special ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll shows most people believe the main reason the Government is sending troops to Iraq to support the fight against ISIS is to remain in a good relationship with our allies, the United States and Britain.

  • 49% of those surveyed said the main reason New Zealand troops are heading to Iraq to help train Iraqi security forces is to maintain good relationships with the US and UK.

  • 30% believed the troops are going there because it is the right thing to do.

  • 9% said it is for some other reason.

  • 11% don’t know.

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One News Colmar Brunton poll April 2015

April 19, 2015

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 859 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 9%

Dates: 11 April to 15 April 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (nc)
  • Labour 31.0% (nc)
  • Green 9% (-1.0%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.2%)
  • Maori 0.8% (-0.8%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 1.1% (+0.7%)
  • NZ First 7.0% (+1.0%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 38
  • Green 11
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/121 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 11 = 49/121 – 12 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 1 + NZ First 9 = 10/121

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 42% (+1.0%)
  • Andrew Little 11% (-1%)
  • Winston Peters 10% (+3.0%)

Economic Direction

  • Better 48% (-5%)
  • Worse 28% (+4%)
  • Same 24% (+1%)

Cannabis

  • Remain illegal in all cases 25% (+4% from 2013)
  • Illegal but an be prescribed for pain relief by doctors 36% (-11%)
  • Should be decriminalised 32% (+11%)
  • Should be legalised 7% (-2%)

Zero hour contracts

  • Should be illegal 77%
  • Not illegal 19%

David Bain

  • Should be paid compensation 69%
  • No compensation 19%
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 32.7% 40
Labour 33.1% 41
Green 10.2% 13
Act 7.9% 10
NZ First 10.2% 13
TPM 2.6% 3
CR 50.8% 63
CL 46.0% 57
16/02/26
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