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Rounding Errors

July 23, 2008

Dean Knight has a post on how rounding party vote figures to 0 or 1 decimal point can lead to the wrong allocation of seats. He queried the Colmar Brunton seat projections as he (and I) got different putting their results into the Electoral Commission calculator.

They use the raw numbers (with no rounding) in their calculations, so their projections are accurate.

It poses a small issue for me. I always prefer to calculate the seat projections myself using the official calculator, rather than trust what the media report. However as I only get the rounded poll results, then the projections may differ by a seat for some parties.

In future I will use the Colmar Brunton projections, as they have shown to Dean they definitely do it the right way, but will still calculate my own for other polls.

One reason I do my own calculations is I don’t assume the electorate seats will be the same as in 2005, but instead go off any public electorate polls to feed into assumptions on electorate seats won. Hence am projectiing Maori Party wins six seats, not four seats as Marae/Digipoll has shown them ahead in six.

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Rail Purchase

July 21, 2008

The One News/Colmar Brunton Poll reported opinion on the buy back of rail.

68% of respondents supported the purchase with 24% against and 8% not sure. Even 56% of National voters support the buy back.

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One News/Colmar Brunton Poll July 2008

July 21, 2008

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: Not stated but probably up until 18 July 2008

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 35.0% (+6.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.4% (-0.8%)
  • Green 6.0% (-1.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.4%)
  • Maori 1.7% (-2.7%)
  • ACT 1.2% (+0.4%)
Projected Seats
  • National 65
  • Labour 44
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Green 8
  • United Future 1
  • Maori 6
  • ACT 1
  • Total 126
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Preferred PM

  • Key 38.0% (nc)
  • Clark 31.0% (+3.0%)
  • Peters 4.0% (nc)
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TV3/TNS Poll July 2008

July 21, 2008

Polling Company: TNS

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: Not stated but usually 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: Not stated but probably up until 18 July 2008

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 35.0% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 4.0% (+0.1%)
  • Green 7.0% (+1.2%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 62
  • Labour 45
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Green 9
  • United Future 1
  • Maori 6
  • ACT 1
  • Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Preferred PM

  • Key 32.0% (-3.0%)
  • Clark 28.0% (-1.0%)
  • Peters 6.0% (nc)
  • English 3.0% (+2.0%)
Personal Attacks
69% of respondents thought Helen Clark’s attack on John Key being on holiday was a personal attack, 16% said it was based on policy and 15% did not know.
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Marae Ikaroa-Rawhiti Poll July 2008

July 21, 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Ikaroa-Rawhiti voters

Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: Around two and a half weeks to 14 July 2008

Client: Marae

Report: None yet

Candidate Support

The poll was reported in two parts. Up until 8 July 2008 Derek Fox (Maori Party) had 50.5% to 41.9% for Parekura Horomia (Labour).
On 8 July stories of domestic violence in the past of Derek Fox were published. Responses after that date were 47.1% for Fox and 45.6% for Horomia.
Note that if half the sample were done before and after 8 July, the margin of error for each part is 7.1%.
The last Marae-Digipoll in 2007 in Ikaroa-Rawhiti had the Maori Party candidate (not selected at that stage) at 54% and the Labour Party candidate (Horomia) at 31%, so the race has tightened since then regardless of the domestic violence revelations.
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Fairfax July 2008 Poll

July 19, 2008

Polling Company: Nielsen

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,049 total voters, 913 decided voters (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 9 to 15 July 2008

Client: Fairfax Media

Report: Stuff and Stuff

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 35.0% (+5.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 4.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 5.0% (-2.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 65
  • Labour 45
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Green 6
  • United Future 1
  • Maori 6
  • ACT 1
  • Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Preferred PM

  • Key 39.0% (-4.0%)
  • Clark 32.0 (+2.0%)
  • Peters 3.0% (+1.0%)
Leader Strengths
  • Better in a crisis – Clark 53%, Key 34%
  • Better on world stage – Clark higher
  • Better on law and order – Key 49%, Clark 37%
  • More capabale at managing economy – Key 49%, Clark 38%
  • Strong – Clark 70%, Key 41%
  • Honest – both at 40%
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Roy Morgan early July 2008 Poll

July 18, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 871 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 30 June to 13 July 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (+0.5%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+2.5%)
  • Green 7.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.0% (-1.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (-1.5%)
  • Other 0.0% (-0.5%)
Breakdowns are also given for Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Other NI and Other SI.
Projected Seats
  • National 62
  • Labour 37
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Green 9
  • United Future 1
  • Maori 6
  • ACT 1
  • Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Country Direction
  • Right 36.5% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 49.5% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14% (nc)
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Ikaroa-Rawhiti Poll next Sunday on Marae

July 13, 2008

There will be much interest is the poll done in Ikaroa-Rawhiti by Marae and presumably DigiPoll. Presumably it was done during or after the Derek Fox allegations. The results will be on Marae on TV One on 20 July.

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Emissions Trading Scheme Poll

July 11, 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 514 (4.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 20 to 27 June 2008

Client: Exceltium

Report: exceltium-poll-results-final

Emission Tradings Scheme

  • 34.2% support ETS legislation, 24.3% oppose
  • 45.1% thing climate change is caused by humans and am important issues which must be addressed alongside other major global issues such as hunger
  • 49.2% say NZ should be one of the worl’s leaders on climate change and work at the same pace as other countries determined to make a difference
  • 42.8% are prepared to pay an extra $10 a week in energy costs to tackle climate change. At $20 a week only 16.3% are prepared and at $40 a week only 4.8% are prepared.
  • 47.9% agree NZ’s climate change policies are mainly about our politicians wanting to grandstand on the world stage.
  • Only 33.9% think NZ should proceed with the ETS legislation rather than wait a month to see what the Australian scheme looks like.
  • 34.4% say the ETS as written won’t cut carbon emissions enough to make a difference, with 26.7% disagreeing.

Note there are 14 pages of detailed results in the full report.

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Jimungo Pulse of the Nation survey

July 10, 2008

Note this is not a poll, but an online survey/competition and is not scientific. It is included here as a reference.

Company: Jimungo

Method: Online, not random but self-selecting

Poll Size: Approx 6,000

Dates: 23 June to 7 July 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Scoop

Party Support

  • National 57.2%
  • Labour 24.4%
  • Green 4.7%
  • NZ First 4.2%
  • Maori 2.3%
  • ACT 1.6%
  • United Future 0.9%
  • Progressive 0.2%
  • Other 4.5%
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 29.3% 36
Labour 34.5% 43
Green 9.4% 12
Act 7.1% 9
NZ First 12.7% 16
TPM 2.8% 4
CR 49.1% 61
CL 46.7% 59
17/05/26
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