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UMR Mood of the Nation

January 3, 2010

UMR have published a 42 page mood of the nation for 2009. Some extracts:

  • 68% say 2010 will be better than 2009, with 20% disagreeing
  • At year end 61% expect economy to get better, and 22% worse
  • 41% expect their family’s living standards to get better, and 22% worse
  • 49% expect unemployment to go up, and 26% down
  • 64% expect interest rates to increase and 11% decrease
  • In ten years time, respondents expect the economy (net +22%) to be better, race relations (+16%), transport (+6%), policing (+11%), education (+4%) and the environment (+1%). A net 9% think the health system will be worse.
  • 59% say country heading on right track and 30% wrong track. average for yeas was 65% to 23%.
  • Corporate net favourable ratings were NZ Post +84%, Telecom +27%, Air NZ +67%, TVNZ +60%
  • Bank favourability ratings are Kiwibank 65%, National 55%, ASB 55%, Westpac 55%, BNZ 49%, ANZ 45% and TSB 34%
  • Net favourability for Govt agencies are Fire Service +86%, Police +57%, Customs +63%, DOC +57%, MAF +36%, MOD +31%, Nat Lib +44%, MFish +34%, IRD +5%, MOT +5%, NZFSA +19%, Min Ed -4%, Min Health -7%, Treasury -6%, MOJ – 14%, DOL – 5%, Corrections -27%, ACC -37%, MSD -13% and TPK -7%
  • Confidence in institutions is Police +30%, GPs +29%, Unis +27%, primary schools +26%, military +6%, small business +5%, sec schools +3%, TV News -10%, banks -13%, public health system -18%, courts -16%, public service -29%, newspapers -33%, religion -34%, Parliament -43%, big business -40%, unions -42%, media generally -55%
  • Party Vote Dec 2009 is Nat 48%, Lab 35%, Greens 7.5%
  • Net favourability for John Key +54%, Phil Goff +9%,
  • Top five issues are economy 33%, unemployment 14%, crime 11%, health care 4%, politics/govt 4%

Auckland Mayor Poll

December 22, 2009

UMR polled 482 Aucklanders on who they thought would be a better Mayor for the new Auckland Council.

42% said Len Brown and 31% John Banks

Roy Morgan December 2009

December 21, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 858 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 30 November to 13 December 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 54.0% (+0.5%)
  • Labour 27.5% (-3.0%)
  • Green 9.5% (+2.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (nc)
  • Maori 1.5% (-2.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 4.0% (+1.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 35
  • Green 12
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 = 48/124 – 15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 62.5% (-3.5%)
  • Wrong 25.0% (+3.0%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (+0.5%)

TV3 Poll December 2009

December 14, 2009

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 893 have a party preference, (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 02 December to 08 December 2009

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 55.2% (-4.7%)
  • Labour 30.8% (+3.6%)
  • Green 7.8% (+0.9%)
  • ACT 1.8% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 1.7%  (-0.7%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • NZ First 1.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 38
  • Green 10
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 125

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/125 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 49/124 -14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 49.9% (-5.9%)
  • Clark 6.1% (-2.1%)
  • Goff 8.0% (+3.3%)
  • Peters 2.1% (-0.9%

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 72.9% (-9.4%) doing well vs 12.3% (+5.1%) doing poorly – net positive is 60.6% (-14.5%)
  • Goff  – 32.2% (-2.0%) doing well vs 40.6% (+2.7%) doing poorly – net positive is -8.4% (-4.7%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

  • capable leader – Key by 41% (+1%)
  • good in a crisis – Key by 29% (nc)
  • sound judgement – Key by 23% (-5%)
  • in touch with Maori – Key by 14% (+8%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

  • more style than substance – Key by 12% (+4%)
  • talk down to people – Goff by 8% (+1%)
  • narrow minded – Goff by 7% (-3%)
  • inflexible – Goff by 2% (-7%)

Roy Morgan late November 2009

December 14, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 849 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 16 November to 29 November 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.5% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 30.5% (-2.5%)
  • Green 7.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 3.5% (+1.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-1.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 38
  • Green 9
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 70/123 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 48/123 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 66.0% (+1.5%)
  • Wrong 22.0% (-0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (-1.0%)

UMR on MMP

December 6, 2009

UMR did a poll of 750 New Zealanders from 22 to 27 October 2009.

Favoured alternatives to MMP:

  • FPP 29%
  • STV 20%
  • SM 9%
  • Not Know enough 32%
  • Unsure 9%

Retain MMP:

  • Retain 48%
  • Change 40%
  • Unsure 11%

Hold $20 million referendum:

  • Yes 32%
  • No 60%
  • Unsure 8%

Success of MMP (net ratings)

  • More Maori MPs +31%
  • More co-operation +27%
  • Prlt more representative +24%
  • More women MPs +22%
  • Legislation consulted more +9%
  • Stable Govt +7%
  • Make MPs listen +1%
  • Harder for parties to break word -2%
  • Foster national unity -5%
  • Sound economic policies -5%

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 999 adults, of whom 822 are decided

Dates: 21 November to 25 November 2009

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 31.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 7.0% (+2.7%)
  • ACT 2.2% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 3.4% (+0.7%)
  • United Future 0.6% (+0.4%)
  • Progressive 0.3% (-0.1%)
  • NZ First 1.0% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 38
  • Green 8
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 70/122 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 47/122 -15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Economic Outlook

  • 68% economy over next 12 months will be better (-2.0%)
  • 16% same (nc)
  • 16% worse (+3.0%)
Preferred PM
  • John Key 54% (+4.0%)
  • Phil Goff 5% (-4%)
  • Helen Clark 3% (-1%)
MMP
  • Retain 54% (+7% over June 2008)
  • Not Retain 36% (-7%)
  • Don’t Know 10% (nc)
Preferred Electoral System
  • MMP 39%
  • FPP 33%
  • STV 12%
  • SM 2%
  • Don’t Know 14%
Hone Harawira
  • 77% say his comments were racist
  • 16% say they were not
  • 6% don’t know
  • 23% say he should remain an MP
  • 69% say he should go
  • 9% don’t know

Roy Morgan mid November 2009

December 6, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 876 (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 02 November to 15 November 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 51.5% (-4.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (+4.0%)
  • Green 6.5% (-1.0%)
  • ACT 2.5% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (-1.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 41
  • Green 8
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 68/123 – 6 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 50/123 – 12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 64.5% (-2.0%)
  • Wrong 22.5% (+2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (nc)

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 951 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 19 October to 01 November 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 55.5% (+2.5%)
  • Labour 29.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 7.5% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 3.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 1.5% (-1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 36
  • Green 9
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 70/121 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 46/121 – 15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 66.5% (-1.0%)
  • Wrong 20.5% (-1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (+2.0%)

Marae Digipoll November 2009

November 9, 2009

Marae has published the results of a poll done by Digipoll between 18 October and 3 November 2009. It is of 1,002 voters of Maori descent – 700 on the Maori Roll, and 302 on the General Roll.

Party Vote

Maori Party 48%
Labour 26%
National 20%

Electorate Vote (Maori roll only)

Maori Party 57%
Labour 33%
National 7%

Preferred PM

John Key 30%
Helen Clark 11%
Pita Sharples 9%
Tariana Turia 6%
Phil Goff 4%
Winston Peters 4%

PM Approval

Approve 55%
Disapprove 36%

Most Favoured Maori MP

Pita Sharples   31.9%
Tariana Turia   16.7%
Hone Harawira  8.2%
Te Ururoa Flavell  3.3%
Parekura Horomia  3.2%

Most Effective Maori MP

Pita Sharples   31.9%
Tariana Turia   16.7%
Hone Harawira  8.2%
Te Ururoa Flavell  3.3%
Parekura Horomia  3.2%

Government Approval

Approve 45%
Disapprove 45%

Direction

Right 40%
Wrong 44%

Maori Party Supporters

68% support decision to join the Government and think they made right decision
Only 33% support the arrangement where Maori Party Ministers sit outside Cabinet

Top Issues

Jobs / Unemployment 22.5%
Health   12.6%
Education   10.5%
Family / Whanau  8.9%
Cost of Living  8.7%
Economy   5.6%
Housing   4.1%
Child Care  3.9%
Law and Order  3.7%
Environmental Issues 1.8%
Treaty Claims  1.2%

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