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Crafar Farms poll

March 20, 2012

Fairfax reports a poll by UMR. Key results were:

“Are you aware of the proposal to sell 16 agricultural properties, the Crafar farms, in the central North Island to an overseas company?

Yes: 87 per cent 
No: 12 per cent
Unsure: 1 per cent

“The Chinese company Shanghai Pengxin wants to buy the Crafar farms; do you support or oppose selling the farms to this Chinese company?”

Support: 21 per cent
Oppose:71 per cent
Unsure: 8 per cent

“Do you agree, or disagree, with this statement: ‘I don’t care what the nationality of the company is, 
I don’t want the farms to be sold to a foreign buyer’.”

Agree:  70 per cent
Disagree:  26 per cent
Unsure: 4 per cent

 

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Roy Morgan Poll early March 2012

March 16, 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 904, of whom 868 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 27 February 2012 to 11 March 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 48.5% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (-1.5%)
  • Green 12.5% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 36
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/122 – 1 less than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 + NZ First 6 + Mana 1 = 58/122 – 4 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 52.5% (-1.0%)
  • Wrong 34.0% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (-0.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll 24 November 2011

November 25, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 959, of whom 921 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 22 to 24 November 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (-3.5%)
  • Labour 23.5% (-1.0%)
  • Green 14.5% (+1.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (nc)
  • Maori 1.0% (-2.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+3.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 29
  • Green 18
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 63/123 – 1 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 29 + Greens 18 + NZ First 8 + Mana 1 = 57/122 – 5 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 49.5% (-11.0%)
  • Wrong 31.0% (+7.0%)
  • Can’t Say 19.5% (+4.0%)
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NZ Herald Digipoll 25 November 2011

November 25, 2011

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 7.7%

Poll Size: 850 respondents, of whom 785 had a party vote preference

Dates: 17 to 23 November 2011

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.9% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-1.1%)
  • Green 11.8% (-0.8%)
  • NZ First 5.2% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 0.4% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-01.%)
  • ACT 1.8% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 0.3% (-0.1%)
  • Conservative 1.3% (+0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 34
  • Green 15
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 126

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each with Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 66/126 – 2 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 15 + NZ First 6 + Mana 1 = 56/126 -8 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 66.3% (-2.2%)
  • Goff 19.5% (+1.6%)
  • Peters 4.3% (+0.6%)
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3 News Reid Research Poll 24 Nov 2011

November 24, 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: assumed 19 November to 23 November 2011

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 50.8% (+0.6%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-1.4%)
  • Green 13.4% (+0.4%)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 1.5%  (+0.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 1.1% (+0.1%)
  • NZ First 3.1% (-0.4%)
  • Conservative 1.8% (+0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 34
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, Mana, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/123 – 5 more than minimum 62 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 17 + Mana 1 = 52/123 -10 less than minimum 62 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 49.0% (nc)
  • Goff 12.0% (+2.0%)
  • Peters 4.0% (nc)
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll 24 Nov 2011

November 24, 2011

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds:

Dates: 19 November to 23 November 2011

Client: One News

Report: One News

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (+2.0%)
  • Green 10.0% (-3.0%)
  • ACT 1.7% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.4%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 1.0% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 4.2% (+2.0%)
  • Conservative 2.4% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 36
  • Green 13
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 68/122 – 6 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 13 + Mana 1= 50/122 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 52% (-1%)
  • Phil Goff 15% (+2%)
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Fairfax Research International Poll 23 November 2011

November 23, 2011

Polling Company: Research International

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000, of whom 838 are decided

Undeicdeds: 15.6%

Dates: 17 to 21 November 2011

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 54.0% (+1.5%)
  • Labour 26.0% (+0.1%)
  • Green 12.0% (-0.6%)
  • ACT 0.7% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 1.1% (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 1.1% (+0.4%)
  • NZ First 4.0% (+1.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 69
  • Labour 33
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 69 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 15 + Mana 1= 49/124 -14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 51.5% (-0.7%)
  • Phil Goff 12.5% (-1.0%)
  • Winston Peters 3.5% (-0.4%)

Preferred Government

  • Prefer one party to govern alone 39.7%
  • Prefer coalition 54.1%
  • No preference 3%
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Te Tai Tonga poll November 2011

November 21, 2011

Digipoll did a poll of 400 respondents in the Te Tai Tonga electorate for Te Karere.

Party Vote

  • Labour 36%
  • Maori 25%
  • National 15%
  • Greens 12%
  • Mana 17%
  • NZ First 3%

Electorate Vote

  • Rahui Katene (Maori) 46%
  • Rino Tirikatene (Labour) 35%
  • Dora Langsbury (Greens) 10%
  • Clinton Dealove (Mana) 9%

Preferred PM

  • John Key 29%
  • Phil Goff 10%
  • Pita Sharples 6%
  • Metiria Turei 6%
  • Tariana Turia 4%
  • Hone Harawira 4%

Government Direction

  • Right 35%
  • Wrong 55%

Most favoured Maori MP

  • Pita Sharples 26%
  • Hone Harawira 11%
  • Tariana Turia 10%
  • Rahui Katene 8%
  • Shane Jones 4%
  • Metiria Turei 4%

Most Important Issue

  • Jobs 15%
  • Education 13%
  • Economy 11%
  • Asset Sales 10%

Well being

  • Better Off 22%
  • Worse Off 46%
  • No difference 32%
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Future Leaders

November 20, 2011

The NZ Herald reports:

If Phil Goff left politics, who would be the best Labour leader?

* Annette King 21.9 per cent
* David Cunliffe 16.3 per cent
* Shane Jones 12.7 per cent
* David Parker 11.2 per cent

If John Key left politics, who would be the best National leader?

* Bill English 27.1 per cent
* Steven Joyce 18.6 per cent
* Judith Collins 15.7 per cent
* Gerry Brownlee 10.6 per cent.

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One News Colmar Brunton Poll 17 November 2011

November 20, 2011

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,006

Undecideds:

Dates: 12 November to 16 November 2011

Client: One News

Report: One News

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 13.0% (+4.0%)
  • ACT 1.6% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 1.6% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.3% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 1.3% (+1.1%)
  • NZ First 2.2% (-0.7%)
  • Conservative 1.4% (+0.9%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 32
  • Green 16
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 69/122 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 16 + Mana 2= 50/122 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 53% (-2%)
  • Phil Goff 13% (-1%)
  • Winston Peters 3%
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 33.8% 42
Labour 31.2% 39
Green 9.8% 12
Act 9.3% 12
NZ First 7.0% 9
TPM 4.4% 6
CR 50.1% 63
CL 45.3% 57
7/04/25
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