UMR poll on Scott Watson
November 27, 2016
The Herald reports:
GUILTY
2002: 59%
2016: 23%
NOT GUILTY
2002: 15%
2016: 29%
UNSURE
2002: 26%
2016: 48%
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One News Colmar Brunton poll November 2016
November 27, 2016
Polling Company: Colmar Brunton
Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,010 voters of whom 839 have a party preference
Undecideds: 16%
Dates: 12 November to 23 November 2016
Client: One News
Report: Colmar Brunton
Party Support
- National 50.0% (+2%)
- Labour 28.0% (+2%)
- Green 11.0% (-2.0%)
- NZ First 10.0% (-1.0%)
- Maori 1.0% (-0.8%)
- United Future 0.0% (nc)
- ACT 0.0% (-0.5%)
- Mana 0.0% (nc)
- Conservative 0.2% (-0.1%)
Projected Seats
- National 60
- Labour 34
- Green 13
- ACT 1
- Maori 1
- United Future 1
- NZ First 12
- Total 122
This is based on no change in electorate seats.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/122 – the minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 34 + Greens 13 = 47/122 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
- C – NZ First 12 + Maori 1 = 13/122
On this poll National could govern with ACT and United Future.
Preferred PM
- John Key 36.0% (-2%)
- Andrew Little 8% (-2%)
- Winston Peters 8% (-3%)
- Jacinda Ardern 1.0% (nc)
Economic Outlook
- Better 43% (-2%)
- Same 24% (nc)
- Worse 33% (+2%)
Foreign property tax
- Support a 15% tax on foreign house buyers in Auckland 75%
- Oppose 18%
Plastic bag levy
- Support a 15c per bag levy 78%
- Oppose 19%
Surplus 2016
- Increase spending 48%
- Reduce debt 31%
- Reduce taxes 17%
ResearchNZ poll on Euthanasia
November 6, 2016
ResearchNZ polled 500 people on euthanasia:
Suppose a person has a painful, incurable disease. Do you think that doctors should be allowed by law to end the patient’s life, if the patient requests it?
- Yes 65% (-2% from July 2015)
- No 22% (-2%)
- Don’t Know 13% (+4%)
Still thinking of that person with a painful, incurable disease, do you think that someone else, such as a close relative, should be allowed by law to help end the patient’s life, if the patient requests it?
- Yes 43% (-1%)
- No 46% (-2%)
- Don’t Know 11% (+3%)
Roy Morgan poll October 2016
November 4, 2016
Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research
Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 873 of whom 816 have a party preference
Undecideds: 6.5%
Dates: early October to 23 October 2016
Client: Self Published
Report: Roy Morgan
Party Support
- National 48.0% (+6.5%)
- Labour 26.5% (-7.0%)
- Green 11.5% (-0.5%)
- NZ First 10.0% (+1.5%)
- Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
- United Future 0.0% (nc)
- ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
- Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
- Conservative 0.0% (-0.5%)
Projected Seats
- National 59
- Labour 32
- Green 14
- ACT 1
- Maori 2
- United Future 1
- NZ First 12
- Total 121
This is based on no change in electorate seats.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 32 + Greens 14 = 46/121 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
- C – NZ First 12 + Maori 2 = 14/121
On this poll National could govern with ACT and United Future.
Country Direction
- Right 55.5% (+3.5%)
- Wrong 29.0% (-6.0%)
- Can’t Say 15.5% (+2.5%)
Horizon poll on Auckland Mayoralty
October 7, 2016
NBR reports:
DECIDED VOTERS
- Phil Goff: 52%
- Vic Crone: 15%
- John Palino: 8%
- Cloe Swarbrick: 7%
- Mark Thomas 5%
- Penny Bright: 5%
- Others: 8%
INCLUDING UNDECIDED VOTERS
- Phil Goff: 38%
- Vic Crone: 11%
- John Palino: 6%
- Cloe Swarbrick: 5%
- Mark Thomas 4%
- Penny Bright: 4%
- Others : 5%
- No response: 4
- Don’t know: 23%
Ipsos poll on immigration
October 2, 2016
Ipsos did a poll on immigration issues in multiple countries including 505 adults in NZ.
Findings include:
- 48% say housing affordability is one of top two issues
- 47% say immigration has been positive for NZ, 31% negative
- A net 52% agree immigration should be targeted at professions with shortages
- A net 48% say refugees can become highly valued contributors to society
- A net 35% say immigration has made NZ a more interesting place to live
- A net 28% say immigration is good for the economy
- A net 30% agree immigration has placed too much pressure on public services
- A net 15% are confident most refugees will integrate
- A net 12% say immigration has made it harder for those here to get jobs
- A net 10% say there are too many immigrants in NZ
- A net 10% say terrorists who pretend to be refugees will enter NZ
- A net 7% say immigrants are often better workers than those already here
- A net -15% want an increase in the number of refugees
- A net -35% say the number of immigrants who can move here should increase
- A net -40% want no refugees accepted at all
- 48% of NZers think Brexit was wrong decision for the UK and 32% right decision
The full results are here – ipsos-new-zealand-immigration-refugees-and-brexit-survey-report-2016
Roy Morgan poll September 2016
September 28, 2016
Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research
Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 864 of whom 812 have a party preference
Undecideds: 6.0%
Dates: early August to 18 September 2016
Client: Self Published
Report: Roy Morgan
Party Support
- National 41.5% (-4.5%)
- Labour 33.5% (+8.0%)
- Green 12.0% (-2.5%)
- NZ First 8.5% (-1.0%)
- Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
- United Future 0.0% (nc)
- ACT 1.0% (nc)
- Mana/Internet 0.0% (-0.5)
- Conservative 0.5% (-0.5%)
Projected Seats
- National 51
- Labour 41
- Green 15
- ACT 1
- Maori 2
- United Future 1
- NZ First 10
- Total 121
This is based on no change in electorate seats.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 51 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 53/121 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 41 + Greens 15 = 56/121 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
- C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 14/121
On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.
Country Direction
- Right 52.0% (-6.0%)
- Wrong 35.0% (+4.5%)
- Can’t Say 13.0% (+1.5%)
Wellington Mayoral polls
September 16, 2016
The Dom Post reports:
LESTER’S POLL
Who would you vote for to be Mayor of Wellington?
* Justin Lester – 34.5 per cent
* Jo Coughlan – 17.5 per cent
* Nick Leggett – 17.4 per cent
* Helene Ritchie – 4.2 per cent
* Nicola Young – 3.5 per cent
* Andy Foster – 1.4 per cent
* Another candidate – 5.3 per cent
* Unsure – 16.3 per centWho is your second preference?
* Jo Coughlan – 19 per cent
* Nick Leggett – 17.4 per cent
* Andy Foster – 14.4 per cent
* Justin Lester – 13.1 per cent
* Nicola Young – 11.3 per cent
* Helene Ritchie – 3.9 per cent
* Another candidate – 4.5 per cent
* Unsure – 16.6 per centLEGGETT’S POLL
Who is your first preference to be Mayor of Wellington?
* Justin Lester – 19.6 per cent
* Nick Leggett – 19.2 per cent
* Jo Coughlan – 11.1 per cent
* Nicola Young – 3.5 per cent
* Andy Foster – 1.1 per cent
* Keith Johnson – 0.7 per cent
* Johnny Overton – 0.1 per cent
* Unsure – 43.8 per centWho is your second preference?
* Nick Leggett – 13 per cent
* Justin Lester – 12 per cent
* Jo Coughlan – 12 per cent
* Nicola Young – 5 per cent
* Andy Foster – 2 per cent
* Keith Johnson – 1 per cent
* Helene Ritchie – 1 per cent
* Johnny Overton – 0 per cent
* Unsure – 54 per cent
Auckland Mayoralty poll by Horizon
September 14, 2016
The results are here.
- Phil Goff 38%
- Vic Crone 11%
- John Palino 6%
- Chloe Swarbrick 5%
- Mark Thomas 4%
- Penny Bright 4%
- David Hay 2%
23% were undecided.
One News Colmar Brunton poll September 2016
September 12, 2016
Polling Company: Colmar Brunton
Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,013 voters of whom 845 have a party preference
Undecideds: 13%
Dates: 03 September to 09 September 2016
Client: One News
Report: Colmar Brunton
Party Support
- National 48.0% (nc)
- Labour 26.0% (-3%)
- Green 13.0% (+1.0%)
- NZ First 11.0% (+2.0%)
- Maori 1.8% (+1.1%)
- United Future 0.0% (nc)
- ACT 0.5% (+0.2%)
- Mana 0.0% (nc)
- Conservative 0.3% (-0.4%)
Projected Seats
- National 58
- Labour 31
- Green 15
- ACT 1
- Maori 2
- United Future 1
- NZ First 13
- Total 121
This is based on no change in electorate seats.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 31 + Greens 15 = 46/121 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
- C – NZ First 13 + Maori 2 = 15/122
On this poll National (plus ACT and United) could govern with the Maori Party. Labour could govern with Greens, NZ First and Maori Party. The Maori Party would hold the effective balance of power.
Preferred PM
- John Key 38.0% (-1%)
- Andrew Little 10% (+3%)
- Winston Peters 11% (-1%)
- Jacinda Ardern 1.0% (nc)
Economy
- Better 45% (+3%)
- Worse 31% (-5%)
Immigration
- Fewer migrants 38% (+11% from April)
- Current numbers rights 44% (-7%)
- More migrants 13% (-5%)
Housing
- 53% say Government should take more action even if it reduces house values
- 31% say more should be done but only if house values do not shrink
- 11% say no more action needed