Archives: September 2016

Roy Morgan poll September 2016

September 28, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 864 of whom 812 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.0%

Dates: early August to 18 September 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 41.5% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 33.5% (+8.0%)
  • Green 12.0% (-2.5%)
  • NZ First 8.5% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (-0.5)
  • Conservative 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 51
  • Labour 41
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 51 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 53/121 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 15 = 56/121 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 14/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 52.0% (-6.0%)
  • Wrong 35.0% (+4.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (+1.5%)
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Wellington Mayoral polls

September 16, 2016

The Dom Post reports:

LESTER’S POLL

Who would you vote for to be Mayor of Wellington?

* Justin Lester – 34.5 per cent
* Jo Coughlan – 17.5 per cent
* Nick Leggett – 17.4 per cent
* Helene Ritchie – 4.2 per cent
* Nicola Young – 3.5 per cent
* Andy Foster – 1.4 per cent
* Another candidate – 5.3 per cent
* Unsure – 16.3 per cent

Who is your second preference?

* Jo Coughlan – 19 per cent
* Nick Leggett – 17.4 per cent
* Andy Foster – 14.4 per cent
* Justin Lester – 13.1 per cent
* Nicola Young – 11.3 per cent
* Helene Ritchie – 3.9 per cent
* Another candidate – 4.5 per cent
* Unsure – 16.6 per cent

LEGGETT’S POLL

Who is your first preference to be Mayor of Wellington?

* Justin Lester – 19.6 per cent
* Nick Leggett – 19.2 per cent
* Jo Coughlan – 11.1 per cent
* Nicola Young – 3.5 per cent
* Andy Foster – 1.1 per cent
* Keith Johnson – 0.7 per cent
* Johnny Overton – 0.1 per cent
* Unsure – 43.8 per cent

Who is your second preference?

* Nick Leggett – 13 per cent
* Justin Lester – 12 per cent
* Jo Coughlan – 12 per cent
* Nicola Young – 5 per cent
* Andy Foster – 2 per cent
* Keith Johnson – 1 per cent
* Helene Ritchie – 1 per cent
* Johnny Overton – 0 per cent
* Unsure – 54 per cent

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Auckland Mayoralty poll by Horizon

September 14, 2016

The results are here.

  1. Phil Goff 38%
  2. Vic Crone 11%
  3. John Palino 6%
  4. Chloe Swarbrick 5%
  5. Mark Thomas 4%
  6. Penny Bright 4%
  7. David Hay 2%

23% were undecided.

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One News Colmar Brunton poll September 2016

September 12, 2016

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,013 voters of whom 845 have a party preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates: 03 September to 09 September 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (nc)
  • Labour 26.0% (-3%)
  • Green 13.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 11.0% (+2.0%)
  • Maori 1.8% (+1.1%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.2%)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.3% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 31
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 13
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 15 = 46/121 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 13 + Maori 2 = 15/122

On this poll National (plus ACT and United) could govern with the Maori Party.  Labour could govern with Greens, NZ First and Maori Party. The Maori Party would hold the effective balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 38.0% (-1%)
  • Andrew Little 10% (+3%)
  • Winston Peters 11% (-1%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 1.0% (nc)

 

Economy

  • Better 45% (+3%)
  • Worse 31% (-5%)

Immigration

  • Fewer migrants 38% (+11% from April)
  • Current numbers rights 44% (-7%)
  • More migrants 13% (-5%)

Housing

  • 53% say Government should take more action even if it reduces house values
  • 31% say more should be done but only if house values do not shrink
  • 11% say no more action needed
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Republicanism poll

September 5, 2016

The Herald reports:

The poll asked 1,006 voting age New Zealanders and was taken during August.

The question was first asked in March 2014 and showed support starting at 44 per cent. By April 2015 it was up to 47 per cent.

The question asked “What is your preference for New Zealand’s next head of State?”, the results were:

• British monarch: 34%
• New Zealand head of State, parliamentary elected: 15%
• New Zealand head of State, directly elected: 44%
• Unsure/don’t know: 7%

 

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UMR poll on medicinal cannabis

September 1, 2016

Stuff reports:

Of those who responded, 76 per cent agreed New Zealand laws should be changed so patients had safe and legal access to medicinal cannabis products prescribed by licensed doctors.

Just 12 per cent answered were opposed, while another 12 per cent were undecided.

The poll showed a 4 per cent rise in support for law reform since UMR’s last poll on the issue in January.

Auckland University of Technology psychology and public health professor Max Abbott said the numbers reflected a change in national opinion.

“It’s quite remarkable that only 12 per cent were opposed – this may be the lowest level of opposition ever found in a cannabis poll in New Zealand.”

A second question about whether natural cannabis products should be treated as herbal remedies when used therapeutically was supported by 61 per cent of respondents.

A further 24 per cent opposed the idea, and 15 per cent were undecided. 

 

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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 45.1% 57
Labour 42.8% 55
Green 5.4% 7
NZ First 3.3% 0
Act 0.4% 1
Maori 0.9% 0
Mana 0.0% 0
TOP 1.1% 0
Total 98.9% 120
18/06/18
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