Archives: August 2016

Roy Morgan poll August 2016

August 30, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 845 of whom 794 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.0%

Dates: early August to 21 August 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (-7.0%)
  • Labour 25.5% (nc)
  • Green 14.5% (+3.0%)
  • NZ First 9.5% (+2.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 31
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 12
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 18 = 49/121 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 12 + Maori 2 = 14/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.0% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 30.5% (nc)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-0.5%)
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UMR poll on house prices

August 23, 2016

Hive News reports:

But yesterday UMR released results of a poll that found 60% of Aucklanders and 55% of home owners would prefer that house prices either fell a bit or fell dramatically over the next year.

The poll of 1,000 New Zealanders over the age of 18 was taken from July 29 to August 17 through UMR’s online omnibus survey and found a total of 63% nationwide who would either prefer house prices to ‘fall but not too much’ (37%) or to fall dramatically (26%).

UMR, which conducts polls for the Labour, found 55% of home owners would prefer house prices to fall a bit (40%) or dramatically (15%).

The poll found 14% of respondents preferred house prices either kept rising rapidly (4%) or at a slower pace (10%), while 17% of Aucklanders wanted house prices to keep rising rapidly (4%) or at a slower pace (13%). A total of 15% of home owners wanted house prices to rise rapidly (2%) or at a slower pace (13%). There were 633 home owners and 331 Aucklanders who took the poll.

The poll also asked if there was a housing crisis at the moment and found that 81% of all respondents and 85% of Aucklanders thought there was a crisis, while 79% of home owners thought there was housing crisis. Fourteen per cent of those polled thought there was no crisis and 5% were unsure.

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Spinoff/SSI poll on Auckland

August 23, 2016

Auckland Mayoral preferences:

  • Phil Goff 31%
  • Vic Crone 8%
  • John Palino 4%
  • Penny Bright 2.4%
  • Mark Thomas 1.7%
  • David Hay 1.4%
  • Undecided 44%

Auckland Unitary Plan agreement:

  • Yes great idea 19%
  • Yes with some reservations 56%
  • No 12%
  • Unsure 13%

Party Vote (in Auckland)

  • National 42.6%
  • Labour 32.7%
  • Greens 11%
  • NZ First 10.4%
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Cannabis poll August 2016

August 15, 2016

The Herald reports on a poll done by Curia for the NZ Drug Foundation.

150816CANNABISonline

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Newshub Reid Research poll August 2016

August 9, 2016

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 22 July to 3 August 2016

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 45.1% (-1.9%)
  • Labour 32.7% (+1.4%)
  • Green 11.5% (+0.4%)
  • NZ First 8.1% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 1.3% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.2% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 0.4% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 39
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/122 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 14 = 53/122 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 12/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 36.7% (nc)
  • Andrew Little 10.5% (+1.6%)
  • Winston Peters 10.9% (-1.2%)

Housing

  • 22% (+2%) think Government is doing enough to control the housing market
  • 75% (-1%)  do not
  • 56% support Labour’s Kiwibuild (100,000 new houses in 10 years) policy
  • 41% do not

Immigration

  • 60% think the Government should let fewer immigrants in
  • 37% do not
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Curia's blog specialises in polls and polling, with a mainly New Zealand focus. More

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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 45.1% 57
Labour 42.8% 55
Green 5.4% 7
NZ First 3.3% 0
Act 0.4% 1
Maori 0.9% 0
Mana 0.0% 0
TOP 1.1% 0
Total 98.9% 120
18/06/18
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