Archives: February 2016

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,004 of whom 855 had a party preference

Undecideds: 11%

Dates: 13 to 17 February 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (nc)
  • Labour 32.0% (+1%)
  • Green 8.0% (-4.0%)
  • NZ First 10.0% (+1%)
  • Maori 1.0% (+0.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.3% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 0.6% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 39
  • Green 10
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 12
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 10 = 49/122 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 12 + Maori 1 = 13/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 40.0% (nc)
  • Andrew Little 9.0% (+1%)
  • Winston Peters 9.0% (+1%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 2.0% (-1%)

NZ Flag

  • Current Flag 63%
  • Alternative Flag 26%

Police Pursuits

  • Police should be able to pursue any vehicle that fails to stop 68%
  • NZ law should be changed 26%

TPP

  • May impact our sovereignty and I’m concerned 44%
  • May impact our sovereignty and not a big concern 22%
  • Not much impact of sovereignty 24%

Roy Morgan poll February 2016

February 19, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 896 of whom 833 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.0%

Dates: early February to 14 January 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 48.5% (+1.5%)
  • Labour 27.0% (-0.5%)
  • Green 14.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-2.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 33
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 11
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/121 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 18 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 1 = 8/121

On this poll National could form a CR Government with either ACT or United Future.

Country Direction

  • Right 56.5% (-3.0%)
  • Wrong 28.5% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (+2.5%)

Newshub reports:

The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is bad news for Prime Minister John Key, with 61 percent of people saying no, they don’t want to change the New Zealand flag. Only 30 percent want a change.

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