Archives: December 2015

Herald DigiPoll December 2015

December 15, 2015

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 04 to 14 December 2015

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 51.3% (+0.5%)
  • Labour 31.1% (+0.1%)
  • Green 8.2% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 5.7% (-1.2%)
  • Maori 2.1% (+1.9%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • ACT 0.8% (+0.6%)
  • Mana 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • Conservative 0.0% (-0.6%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 37
  • Green 10
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/121 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 10 = 47/121 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 2 = 9/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 65.2% (+1.5%)
  • Andrew Little 16.2% (+2.9%)
  • Winston Peters 7.9% (-3.7%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 2.8% (-1.1%)

TPP

  • 27% support (+5%)
  • 26% oppose (-6%)
  • 46% no view (nc)

Iraq

  • Support deployment 63% (+4%)
  • Oppose deployment 30% (-4%)

Obesity

  • 53% say school tuck shops should ban unhealthy food
  • 44% disagree

US Ship Visits

  • 50% say a US visit would be positive
  • 29% don’t want a visit
  • 16% say a visit would be a triumph for NZ nuclear free policy

Roy Morgan poll December 2015

December 14, 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 882 of whom 811 have a party preference

Undecideds: 8.0%

Dates: early December to 06 December 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (nc)
  • Labour 28.5% (-1.0%)
  • Green 13.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 33
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/120 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 16 = 50/120 – 11 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 2 = 9/120

On this poll National could govern with ACT and United Future.

Country Direction

  • Right 59.5% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 31.0% (+2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 9.5% (-2.0%)

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 08 to 16 November 2015

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 46.7% (-0.6%)
  • Labour 32.3% (-0.7%)
  • Green 10.2% (+0.2%)
  • NZ First 7.5% (-0.4%)
  • Maori 1.3% (+0.8%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.8% (+0.2%)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.7% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 39
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 12 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 2 = 11/122

On this poll National could form a CR government with either Maori Party or NZ First while Labour would need both the Maori Party and NZ First.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 38.3% (-1.2%)
  • Andrew Little 10.4% (-0.4%)
  • Winston Peters 9.3% (+0.7%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 4.2% (+0.7%)

A Colmar Brunton poll for Q+A found:

Most concerning issues in order:

  1. Wages
  2. Housing affordability
  3. Unemployment
  4. Foreign property ownership
  5. Immigration
  6. Climate change

Poverty

  • Government should be doing more about poverty 66%
  • Government is doing about right amount 27%
  • Government should be doing less 1%

Social Housing

  • Government should be doing more for social housing 55%
  • Government is doing about right amount 36%
  • Government should be doing less 3%

Republic

  • NZ should become a republic 19%
  • Stay with monarchy 73%

Australian deportations

  • NZ should deport non citizens who serve more than a year in prison 74%
  • Disagree 18%
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