Polling Company: Colmar Brunton
Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,002 of whom 832 have a party preference
Undecideds: 12%
Dates: 10 to 14 October 2015
Client: One News
Report: Colmar Brunton
Party Support
- National 47.0% (nc)
- Labour 31.0% (-1%)
- Green 12.0% (nc)
- NZ First 9.0% (+2%)
- Maori 0.8% (-0.4%)
- United Future 0.0% (nc)
- ACT 0.2% (+0.1%)
- Mana 0.0% (-0.2%)
- Conservative 0.4% (+0.3%)
Projected Seats
- National 57
- Labour 38
- Green 14
- ACT 1
- Maori 1
- United Future 1
- NZ First 10
- Total 122
This is based on no change in electorate seats.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 = 52/122 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
- C – NZ First 10 + Maori 1 = 11/122
On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.
Preferred PM
- John Key 40.0% (nc)
- Andrew Little 8.0% (-2%)
- Winston Peters 8.0% (+2%)
- Jacinda Ardern 3.0% (nc)
Economic Outlook
- Better 42% (+9%)
- Worse 33% (-12%)
- Same 25% (+3%)
Smoke free areas
- 53% support extending smoke free areas to outside areas of bars and restaurants
- 45% disagree
Contraception
- 70% say government should encourage contraception for mothers who have had multiple children placed into CYF care
- 24% disagree
Benefits in Australia
- 67% say NZ should restrict benefit eligibility for Australians, as Australia does for NZers
Australian Deportations
- 58% say NZ should deport Australians who have served prison sentences of 12 months or more
