Archives: July 2015

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 15 to 22 July 2015

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (+0.6%)
  • Labour 31.1% (+0.7%)
  • Green 11.4% (+0.3%)
  • NZ First 8.4% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 0.6% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.7% (-1.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 37
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 14 = 51/121 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 1 = 11/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 38.3% (-1.1%)
  • Andrew Little 10.2% (-1.4%)
  • Winston Peters 11.3% (+0.1%)

Foreign buyers

  • 61% support banning foreign buyers from buying houses
  • 35% oppose
  • 4% don’t know

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 of whom 856 have a party preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 11 to 15 July 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 32.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 13.0% (+3.0%)
  • NZ First 7.0% (nc)
  • Maori 0.4% (-1.1%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.4% (+0.3%)
  • Mana 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.0% (-2.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 39
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/123 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 16 = 55/123 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 1 = 9/123

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 40.0% (-4.0%)
  • Andrew Little 8.0% (-1.0%)
  • Winston Peters 7.0% (-2.0%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 36% (-9%)
  • Worse 41% (+10%)
  • Same 24% (nc)

Genetic Modification

  • 44% support law change to allow NZ businesses to use some form of GM organisms
  • 49% oppose

Refugees

  • 53% support increasing quote from 750 to 1,000
  • 44% opposed

Organ donation compensation

  • 67% say organ donors should get compensation similar to ACC
  • 22% say organ donors should get the sickness benefit

Euthanasia

  • 75% support a terminally ill person being able to have a medical practitioner assist them to end their lives
  • 21% opposed

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 886 of whom 837 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 29 June to 12 July 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 43.0% (-6.5%)
  • Labour 32.0% (+6.0%)
  • Green 13.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 7.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 53
  • Labour 39
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 53 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 16 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 2 = 11/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 51.0% (-11.5%)
  • Wrong 33.0% (+6.0%)
  • Can’t Say 16.0% (+5.5%)

Security Issues poll

July 12, 2015

Curia did a poll for the Dept of PM and Cabinet in October 2014 on security issues.

Findings include:

  • 10% of NZers think NZ faces a strong or great risk from terrorism, 39% a moderate risk, 39% a minimal risk and 9% no risk.
  • 68% of NZers think the GCSB overall is good (or very good) for New Zealand and only 7% bad
  • 76% of NZers think the SIS overall is good for New Zealand and only 5% bad
  • 71% of NZers think the Five Eyes agreement is good for New Zealand and only 9% bad
  • 29% of NZers think NZ intelligence agencies are interested in their private communications, while 62% do not think they are interested
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