Archives: June 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 866 of whom 823 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 08 June to 21 June 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 26.0% (+0.5%)
  • Green 13.0% (+2.5%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 32
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/121 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 16 = 48/121 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 1 = 9/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Country Direction

  • Right 62.5% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 27.0% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 10.5% (-0.5%)

Trust in Occupations

June 9, 2015

Research NZ asked 500 NZers to rate how much they trusted 10 occupations on a 0 to 10 basis. The proportions who gave a 7 or higher were:

  1. Fire Service 93% (-4%)
  2. Ambulance Service 92% (-4%)
  3. Doctors and nurses 87% (-4%)
  4. Police 75% (-9%)
  5. School teachers 75% (-6%)
  6. Government employees 44% (+2%)
  7. Lawyers 43% (-4%)
  8. Local councillors 31% (+1%)
  9. MPs 25% (+7%)
  10. Journalists 23% (nc)

The change from 2013 is in brackets

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 21 to 27 May 2015

Client: 3 News

Report3 News

Party Support

  • National 46.4% (-3.4%)
  • Labour 30.4% (+1.3%)
  • Green 11.1% (+1.8%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 1.1%  (-0.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.0% (-0.6%)
  • NZ First 8.1% (+1.3%)
  • Conservative 1.9% (-0.8%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 37
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 14 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 1 = 11/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 39.4% (-4.6%)
  • Andrew Little 11.6% (+1.8%)
  • Winston Peters 11.2% (+3.6%)

John Key

  • Went too far with ponytail pulling 52%
  • Was just horsing about 42%

House Affordability

  • 33% says Government is doing enough to keep prices under control
  • 60% say not enough

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,003 respondents, of whom 833 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates:  23 May to 27 May 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (-1%)
  • Labour 31.0% (nc)
  • Green 10.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.4%)
  • Maori 1.4% (+0.6%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.0% (-1.1%)
  • NZ First 7.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 2.3% (+0.8%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 38
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/122 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 12 = 50/122 – 12 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 2 + NZ First 9 = 12/122

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government with either the Maori Party or NZ First. Labour could not form a Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 44% (+2%)
  • Andrew Little 9% (-2%)
  • Winston Peters 9% (-1%)

2015 Budget

  • 4% say made them better off
  • 10% say worse off
  • 72% no change

Property Tax Rules

  • 14% say Govt’s changes to tax investment homes wold within two years go too far
  • 28% say not far enough
  • 50% say are about right

 

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