TV3/TNS Poll August 2008
August 25, 2008
Polling Company: TNS
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)
Dates: 14 August to 20 August 2008
Client: TV3
Report: TV3
Party Support
Party Support
- National 48.0% (nc)
- Labour 37.0% (+2.0%)
- Green 6.0% (-1.0%)
- NZ First 3.0% (-1.0%)
- Maori 2.0% (nc)
- United Future 1.0% (+0.7%)
- ACT 2.0% (+1.0%)
- Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
- National 60
- Labour 46
- Green 7
- NZ First 0
- Maori 6
- United Future 1
- ACT 3
- Progressive 1
- Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- National 60 + ACT 3 = 63/124 – majority possible
- Labour 46 + Progressive 1 + Greens 7 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 61/124 = no majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, NZ First and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive in order of ease are Greens, NZ First, Maori Party and United Future.
Preferred PM
- Key 34.0% (+2.0%)
- Clark 31.0% (+3.0%)
- Peters 3.0% (-2.0%)
- English 3.0% (+2.0%)
Leader Ratings
- Clark – 63% (+6%) performing well vs 22% (-7%) performing badly
- Key – 56% (+6%) performing well vs 20% (-3%) performing badly
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