Archives: NZ Issues Polls

Roy Morgan reports on the biggest issues:

  1. Poverty 14%
  2. House prices 13.7%
  3. Homelessness 9.6%
  4. Government 6.2%
  5. Immigration 5.5%

Roy Morgan poll February 2017

February 28, 2017

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 852 of whom 805 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 30 January to 12 February 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 13.0% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 8.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 32
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 16 = 48/121 – thirteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 12/121

On this poll National would govern with ACT and United Future.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.5% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 23.5% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (-1.0%)

Most Important Issues

  • Housing 26% (-1%)
  • Poverty 17% (+1%)

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,003 voters of whom 808 have a voting preference

Undecideds: 15%

Dates: 11 February to 15 February 2017

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (-4%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+2%)
  • Green 11.0% (-2.0%)
  • NZ First 11.0% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.7% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • ACT 0.8% (+0.8%)
  • Mana 0.8% (+0.8)
  • Conservative 0.2% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 36
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 13
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 13 = 49/121 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 13 + Maori 1 = 14/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 31.0% (-5% from Key)
  • Andrew Little 7% (-1%)
  • Winston Peters 8% (nc)
  • Jacinda Ardern 4% (+3%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 48% (+5%)
  • Worse 22% (-11%)
  • Same 30% (+6%)

Influential Issues

  • Housing 27%
  • Education 20%
  • Economy 16%
  • Health 15%
  • Environment 9%
  • Immigration 9%
  • Child Poverty 5%
  • Jobs 5%
  • Crime 4%

Most Important Issue

  • Housing 16%
  • Economy 11%
  • Health 8%
  • Education 7%
  • Immigration 6%
  • Environment 5%

Summer Holidays shift to February

  • Support 32%
  • Oppose 52%

Waitangi Day

  • Govt continue to attend at Waitangi 61%
  • Stop attending 31%

Research NZ surveyed 501 people:

  • 74% support doctors being allowed to end a patient’s life if they request it and have a painful incurable disease
  • 20% opposed to doctors being allowed to end a patient’s life if they request it and have a painful incurable disease
  • 51% support a close relative being allowed to end a patient’s life if they request it and have a painful incurable disease
  • 41% opposed to a close relative being allowed to end a patient’s life if they request it and have a painful incurable disease

New Zealand Republic announced:

Our annual poll was conducted between April 6 and April 21 and shows 47% of Kiwis want our next Head of State to be a New Zealander. This is a rise of 3% since June 2014.

This is great news for our campaign with the poll showing a corresponding decrease in support for the British Monarch to 46%. This is the highest ever result in our annual poll and the first time we have measured higher support than the Monarchy. Undecided voters remained at 7%.

The poll of 1000 people was carried out on landlines by Curia Market Research.

The detailed results were:

What is your preference for New Zealand’s next Head of State out of the following three options?

 * The next British Monarch becomes King of New Zealand? 46%

* New Zealand has a New Zealander as Head of State elected by a two thirds majority in Parliament   11%

* New Zealand has a New Zealander as Head of State who is elected by the popular vote 36%

Q+A poll on Iraq

April 26, 2015

One News reports:

A special ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll shows most people believe the main reason the Government is sending troops to Iraq to support the fight against ISIS is to remain in a good relationship with our allies, the United States and Britain.

  • 49% of those surveyed said the main reason New Zealand troops are heading to Iraq to help train Iraqi security forces is to maintain good relationships with the US and UK.

  • 30% believed the troops are going there because it is the right thing to do.

  • 9% said it is for some other reason.

  • 11% don’t know.

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 859 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 9%

Dates: 11 April to 15 April 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (nc)
  • Labour 31.0% (nc)
  • Green 9% (-1.0%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.2%)
  • Maori 0.8% (-0.8%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 1.1% (+0.7%)
  • NZ First 7.0% (+1.0%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 38
  • Green 11
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/121 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 11 = 49/121 – 12 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 1 + NZ First 9 = 10/121

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 42% (+1.0%)
  • Andrew Little 11% (-1%)
  • Winston Peters 10% (+3.0%)

Economic Direction

  • Better 48% (-5%)
  • Worse 28% (+4%)
  • Same 24% (+1%)

Cannabis

  • Remain illegal in all cases 25% (+4% from 2013)
  • Illegal but an be prescribed for pain relief by doctors 36% (-11%)
  • Should be decriminalised 32% (+11%)
  • Should be legalised 7% (-2%)

Zero hour contracts

  • Should be illegal 77%
  • Not illegal 19%

David Bain

  • Should be paid compensation 69%
  • No compensation 19%

Reid Research have done a 500 person poll of Te Tai Hauāuru for Maori TV. Key results are:

Party Vote

  • Labour 36% (-6% from election)
  • Maori Party 23% (+2%)
  • National 12% (+4%)
  • Greens 11% (nc)
  • Internet Mana 11% (+3%)
  • NZ First 7% (-1%)

Electorate Vote

  • Maori Party 32% (-16%)
  • Labour 29% (-1%)
  • Greens 11% (nc)
  • Mana 10% (+1%)

Most important issues (rated 6/10 or higher)

  • Family violence 96%
  • Education 95%
  • Child poverty 95%
  • Cost of living 93%
  • Te Reo Maori 93%
  • Maori unemployment 90%
  • Housing 87%
  • Maori Leadership 81%
  • Mining 62%

If Maori Party balance of power

  • Prefer Labour 63%
  • Prefer National 24%

If National wins, Should Maori Party work with them?

  • Yes 67%
  • No 27%

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1017 respondents of whom 777 have a party preference

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 14 to 17 June 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 56.6% (+8.9%)
  • Labour 23.2% (-6.3%)
  • Green 11.9% (-0.9%)
  • NZ First 3.2% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 0.7% (-1.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.7% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 1.2% (+0.7%)
  • Conservative 0.9% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 72
  • Labour 30
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 72 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 74/123 – twelve more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 30 + Greens 15 + Mana 2 = 47/123 – fifteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/122

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 53.3% (+4.7%)
  • David Cunliffe 11.9% (-1.5%)
  • Winston Peters 2.5% (-0.9%)
  • Russel Norman 2.8% (+0.8%)

Country Direction

  • Right 63.1% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 35.4% (-0.2%)

Time for a Change of Government

  • Yes 43.8% (-2.5%)
  • No 48.0% (-0.1%)

Government Performance Out of 10

  • 0 – 2: 9.4% (+0.4%)
  • 3 – 7: 66.0% (-1.0%)
  • 8 – 10: 24.0% (nc)

Most Important Issues

  • Education 22%
  • Economy 21%
  • Health 19%
  • Unemployment 14%
  • Housing Affordability 12%
  • Immigration 4%

MMP Electorate seat threshold

  • 82% against “coat tailing”
  • 14% in favour

Expectation of tax cuts

  • 30% expect tax cuts
  • 61% do not

John Key

  • 22% say they would vote National if John Key stood down
  • 36% say they might depending on who replaced him
  • 39% would not

Most important issues

May 31, 2014

Roy Morgan reports:

When asked about the most important problem facing New Zealand, 44% of New Zealanders mention some kind of Economic issue. This is up 2% since February 2014 and still well ahead of Social issues (21%, unchanged), Government/ Public policy/ Human rights issues (18%, down 1%) and Environmental issues (8%, down 1%).

The most important Economic issues facing New Zealand include Poverty / The gap between the rich and the poor (18%, up 2%), Economy/ Financial crisis/ Recession/ Inflation/ Exchange rate/ High dollar (8%, down 2%), Unemployment/ Job security (8%, up 1%) and the Cost of living/ Increasing prices/ Financial hardship/ Household debt (5%, unchanged).

Other important issues mentioned by New Zealanders are the Government/ Politicians/ Leadership/ Government spending (6%, down 2%), Drugs/ Alcohol Issues/ Drink Driving (5%, up 1%), Housing shortage/ Affordability (5%, up 2%),  Social apathy/ Lack of values/ Lack of empathy towards others/ Intolerance (4%, down 1%) and Education (3%, unchanged).

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