Archives: housing

Curia did a poll for the Property Institute. It asked how important is housing policy in determining your vote:

• Will determine 8%
• Very important 29%
• Important 29%
• Not an issue 32%

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,007 voters of whom around 801 have a party vote preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 27 May to 31 May 2017

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 49.0% (+3.0%)
• Labour 30.0% (nc)
• Green 9.0% (-2.0%)
• NZ First 9.0% (+1.0%)
• Maori 0.6% (-3.1%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.5% (+0.1%%)
• Mana 0.0% (-0.2%)
• Conservative 0.0% (-0.3%)
• Opportunities 1.4% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

• National 59
• Labour 37
• Green 11
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 11
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Greens 11 = 48/121 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 11 + Maori 1 = 12/122

On this poll National could govern with ACT and United Future.

Preferred PM

• Bill English 29.0% (+3%)
• Andrew Little 8% (+1%)
• Winston Peters 7% (-2%)
• Jacinda Ardern 6% (-3%)

2017 Budget

• 44% support tax changes
• 30% opposed

Housing

• Government taking right approach 30%
• Wrong approach 59%

Mental Health

• Support independent inquiry 77%
• Oppose 16%

The Property Institute released:

“The number of people predicting an increase in property prices over the next six months is up 5% to 55% since March. Those expecting prices to decrease has dropped 5% from 12% to just 7%”.

“This means that expectations have rebounded to figures that closely match our November poll (56% increase & 8% decrease) – except in Auckland where there has been a big slump in expectations. Back in November 58% of Aucklanders were expecting house prices to rise – but last month that figure was down 12% to 46%, unchanged from our March poll”.

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  10 to 19 March 2017

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

• National 47.1% (+2.0%)
• Labour 30.8% (-1.9%)
• Green 11.2% (-0.3%)
• NZ First 7.6% (-0.5%)
• Maori 0.7% (-0.6%)
• United Future 0.4% (+0.3%)
• ACT 0.4% (+0.2%)
• Mana 0.0% (-0.4%)
• Conservative 0.4% (-0.1%)
• Opportunities 0.8%

Projected Seats

• National 58
• Labour 38
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 9
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 = 52/122 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• Bill English 25.0% (-11.7% from Key)
• Andrew Little 8.3% (-2.2%)
• Winston Peters 8.9% (-2.0%)
• Jacinda Ardern 10.5%

Labour Leader

• Andrew Little 46%
• Jacinda Ardern 38%

Housing

• Is Government doing enough to control housing market – yes 19%
• No 19%

Immigration

• 51% support a cut in immigration
• 39% do not

Superannuation

• 52% support increase in entitlement age to 67
• 42% do not

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,013 voters of whom 845 have a party preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates: 03 September to 09 September 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 48.0% (nc)
• Labour 26.0% (-3%)
• Green 13.0% (+1.0%)
• NZ First 11.0% (+2.0%)
• Maori 1.8% (+1.1%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.5% (+0.2%)
• Mana 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 0.3% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

• National 58
• Labour 31
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 13
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 31 + Greens 15 = 46/121 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 13 + Maori 2 = 15/122

On this poll National (plus ACT and United) could govern with the Maori Party.  Labour could govern with Greens, NZ First and Maori Party. The Maori Party would hold the effective balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 38.0% (-1%)
• Andrew Little 10% (+3%)
• Winston Peters 11% (-1%)
• Jacinda Ardern 1.0% (nc)

Economy

• Better 45% (+3%)
• Worse 31% (-5%)

Immigration

• Fewer migrants 38% (+11% from April)
• Current numbers rights 44% (-7%)
• More migrants 13% (-5%)

Housing

• 53% say Government should take more action even if it reduces house values
• 31% say more should be done but only if house values do not shrink
• 11% say no more action needed

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 22 July to 3 August 2016

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

• National 45.1% (-1.9%)
• Labour 32.7% (+1.4%)
• Green 11.5% (+0.4%)
• NZ First 8.1% (+0.3%)
• Maori 1.3% (+0.3%)
• United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
• ACT 0.2% (-0.2%)
• Mana 0.4% (+0.3%)
• Conservative 0.5% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

• National 55
• Labour 39
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 10
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/122 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 14 = 53/122 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 12/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 36.7% (nc)
• Andrew Little 10.5% (+1.6%)
• Winston Peters 10.9% (-1.2%)

Housing

• 22% (+2%) think Government is doing enough to control the housing market
• 75% (-1%)  do not
• 56% support Labour’s Kiwibuild (100,000 new houses in 10 years) policy
• 41% do not

Immigration

• 60% think the Government should let fewer immigrants in
• 37% do not

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: May 2016

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

• National 47.0% (+0.3%)
• Labour 31.3% (-1.0%)
• Green 11.1% (+0.9%)
• NZ First 7.8% (+0.3%)
• Maori 1.0% (-0.3%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.4% (-0.4%)
• Mana 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 0.0% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 38
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 10
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 = 52/122 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 10 + Maori 1 = 11/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 36.7% (-1.6%)
• Andrew Little 8.9% (-1.5%)
• Winston Peters 12.1% (+2.8%)
• Jacinda Ardern 2.6% (-1.6%)

Housing

• 20% think Government is doing enough to control the housing market
• 76% do not
• 61% think foreign buyers are driving up house prices

US Ships

• 75% support a visit by a US Navy ship
• 20% opposed

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 15 to 22 July 2015

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 47.0% (+0.6%)
• Labour 31.1% (+0.7%)
• Green 11.4% (+0.3%)
• NZ First 8.4% (+0.3%)
• Maori 0.6% (-0.5%)
• United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
• ACT 0.5% (nc)
• Mana 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 0.7% (-1.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 37
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 10
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Greens 14 = 51/121 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 10 + Maori 1 = 11/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 38.3% (-1.1%)
• Andrew Little 10.2% (-1.4%)
• Winston Peters 11.3% (+0.1%)

Foreign buyers

• 61% support banning foreign buyers from buying houses
• 35% oppose
• 4% don’t know

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,003 respondents, of whom 833 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates:  23 May to 27 May 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 48.0% (-1%)
• Labour 31.0% (nc)
• Green 10.0% (+1.0%)
• ACT 0.1% (-0.4%)
• Maori 1.4% (+0.6%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• Mana 0.0% (-1.1%)
• NZ First 7.0% (nc)
• Conservative 2.3% (+0.8%)

Projected Seats

• National 59
• Labour 38
• Green 12
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 9
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/122 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 12 = 50/122 – 12 fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 2 + NZ First 9 = 12/122

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government with either the Maori Party or NZ First. Labour could not form a Government.

Preferred PM

• John Key 44% (+2%)
• Andrew Little 9% (-2%)
• Winston Peters 9% (-1%)

2015 Budget

• 4% say made them better off
• 10% say worse off
• 72% no change

Property Tax Rules

• 14% say Govt’s changes to tax investment homes wold within two years go too far
• 28% say not far enough
• 50% say are about right

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1000 respondents of whom 873 have a party preference

Undecideds:

Dates: 04 September to 11 September 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

• National 52.8% (-1.4%)
• Labour 22.4% (-1.9%)
• Green 13.0% (+0.1%)
• NZ First 4.4% (+0.8%)
• Maori 1.0% (+0.7%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
• ACT 0.7% (+0.5%)
• Mana 1.4% (+0.1%)
• Conservative 3.6% (+1.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 70
• Labour 29
• Green 17
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 2
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 70 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 72/123 – 10 more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 29 + Greens 17 + Mana 2 = 48/123 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

• John Key 57.5% (-0.1%)
• David Cunliffe 17.5% (nc)

Housing Policies

• 49% prefer National’s home start grants
• 38% prefer Labour’s Kiwibuild

Next National Leader

• Bill English 33%
• Steven Joyce 22%
• Paula Bennett 11%
• Simon Bridges 9%

Affordability of Spending Promises

• National +42% (62% affordable, 20% unaffordable)
• Labour -5%
• NZ First -3%
• Greens -26%
• Conservatives -9%
• Internet Mana -32%

Auckland Transport

• City Rail Link 40% most important
• 2nd harbour crossing 32%
• Dominion Road upgrade 15%
• Puhoi to Wellsford 12%

Auckland Growth

• 55% support new suburbs
• 38% build high rises