Roy Morgan poll September 2016

September 28, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 864 of whom 812 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.0%

Dates: early August to 18 September 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 41.5% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 33.5% (+8.0%)
  • Green 12.0% (-2.5%)
  • NZ First 8.5% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (-0.5)
  • Conservative 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 51
  • Labour 41
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 51 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 53/121 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 15 = 56/121 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 14/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 52.0% (-6.0%)
  • Wrong 35.0% (+4.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (+1.5%)

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