Roy Morgan poll July 2016

July 21, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 864 of whom 799 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.5%

Dates: early July to 17 June 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (+10.0%)
  • Labour 25.5% (-2.5%)
  • Green 11.5% (-3.0%)
  • NZ First 7.0% (-2.0%)
  • Maori 0.5% (-1.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 31
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/121 – five more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 14 = 45/121 – 16 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Country Direction

  • Right 57.5% (+3.0%)
  • Wrong 30.5% (-3.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (+0.5%)

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