Roy Morgan poll July 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 886 of whom 837 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 29 June to 12 July 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 43.0% (-6.5%)
• Labour 32.0% (+6.0%)
• Green 13.0% (nc)
• NZ First 7.0% (+0.5%)
• Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
• Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 1.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 53
• Labour 39
• Green 16
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 9
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 53 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 16 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 9 + Maori 2 = 11/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

• Right 51.0% (-11.5%)
• Wrong 33.0% (+6.0%)
• Can’t Say 16.0% (+5.5%)